China’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.2% in June 2025—its third consecutive monthly decline—driven by weak consumer confidence, falling export orders, and a sluggish logistics sector. With six of eight components weakening and the six-month diffusion index dropping below 50, the LEI triggered a recession signal for the first time since February. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic activity, rose 1.6% in June but showed slower growth compared to the late 2024 period. Despite temporary relief from easing U.S. trade tensions, The Conference Board forecasts China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.7% in 2025, down from 5.0% in 2024, amid continued domestic and global headwinds. They write:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.2% in June 2025 to 148.6 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.1% in May. As a result, the LEI declined by 1.4% over the first half of 2025, after decreasing by -1.2% over the second half of 2024. […]
“The China LEI declined for the third consecutive month in June, after being unchanged in March,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based with 5 out of 8 components weighing negatively on the LEI. In particular, consumer confidence has been depressed since April 2022 and continues to be a major drag on the Index. […]
The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to slow to 4.7% in 2025 after 5.0% in 2024.”
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