In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. real GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.2%, according to the second estimate released today. The advance GDP report last month clocked Q1 GDP at a decline of 0.3% for the quarter. The improvement came mostly from greater than previously estimated investment. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.
The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting an upward revision to investment that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below.
Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.5 percentage point from the previous estimate.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.3 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, the same as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.4 percent, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 0.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter.
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $118.1 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $204.7 billion in the fourth quarter.
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