The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.3% in June 2025, signaling a sharper decline in early-year momentum as consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, and unemployment claims worsened. The LEI is down 2.8% in the first half of 2025, indicating slowing economic growth, although no recession is currently forecast. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which tracks current economic conditions, rose 0.3% in June, while the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) remained unchanged. The Conference Board reports:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8 (2016=100), after no change in May (revised upward from –0.1% originally reported). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the –1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024.
“The US LEI fell further in June,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance. […]
The LEI’s weak growth rate and diffusion index over the past six months triggered the recession signal for the third consecutive month in June […]
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