This is an interesting chart from the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey (h/t 361 Capital). The chart shows the percentage of fund managers classifying the current stage of the economic cycle. The four stages are early-cycle, mid-cycle, late-cycle (winter), and recession. Over the last six –to-eight weeks, a majority of global fund managers have come to the realization that we are late in the cycle. The fine readers of our premium strategy reports were ahead of the curve on this. We’ve have been writing for months that the economy is in the Winter stage of the recovery and have advised an appropriate strategy to protect and preserve capital for such a scenario. The takeaway for investors who missed the boat here is that the proper investment strategy is often contrary to the mainstream opinion.
Jeremy Jones, CFA
Latest posts by Jeremy Jones, CFA (see all)
- “Lower Rates Aren’t Working” - September 20, 2019
- Recession in a Year? CFOs Think So - September 18, 2019
- Amazon Suffers Internal Battle over Search Result Manipulation - September 17, 2019