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Winter is Coming: Is the Economy headed for Recession?

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This is an interesting chart from the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey (h/t 361 Capital). The chart shows the percentage of fund managers classifying the current stage of the economic cycle. The four stages are early-cycle, mid-cycle, late-cycle (winter), and recession. Over the last six –to-eight weeks, a majority of global fund managers have come to the realization that we are late in the cycle. The fine readers of our premium strategy reports were ahead of the curve on this. We’ve have been writing for months that the economy is in the Winter stage of the recovery and have advised an appropriate strategy to protect and preserve capital for such a scenario. The takeaway for investors who missed the boat here is that the proper investment strategy is often contrary to the mainstream opinion.

economic cycle

 

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Jeremy Jones, CFA

Jeremy Jones, CFA is the Director of Research at Young Research & Publishing Inc., and the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. Jeremy is a contributing editor of youngresearch.com.