Russia’s crude oil production faces growing constraints from sanctions, Ukrainian attacks, and limited export capacity, according to Rystad Energy. The firm now forecasts Russian crude output to average 8.95 million barrels per day in 2026, falling to about 8.6 million bpd in 2027.
Rystad says refinery disruptions have created a growing imbalance, while crude inventories are reaching levels that make sustained production cuts increasingly difficult to avoid. Aging oil fields and a lack of major new developments are also reducing Russia’s ability to restore lost production.
The outlook could put further pressure on Russian oil revenues as deeper discounts, higher shipping costs and a potential global oil surplus in 2027 weaken the country’s position with buyers. Rystad expects a meaningful recovery in Russian production to become increasingly unlikely.
