Venezuela’s oil industry is reopening as international companies expand operations and new investors enter the market, but a full production recovery will likely take years.
Rystad Energy expects most growth through 2030 to come from existing fields, where companies can increase output through well repairs, drilling, and infrastructure upgrades. NABEP, for example, says its Venezuelan production has grown from about 18,000 barrels per day to more than 200,000, supported by roughly $1 billion in investment.
Rystad projects Venezuelan production could reach about 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030, with an upside scenario reaching 2.6 million bpd by 2035. However, reaching those levels will require major investments, more drilling rigs, skilled workers, oilfield services, and infrastructure.
The key challenge is no longer Venezuela’s oil reserves—it is execution. Rebuilding the industry and developing large Orinoco projects will require sustained capital and years of work.
