Ed Frank of The Wall Street Journal tells his readers that the employment trends index ticked down to 112.29, from January’s downwardly revised 113.18. He writes: The U.S. labor market weakened a little in February, reflecting that jobs were becoming harder to come by, according to a jobs trends index. The Conference Board’s employment trends index ticked down to 112.29 in February from a downwardly revised 113.18 in January, the private-research group said Monday, flipping two months of improvement. “While the index is still elevated compared to its prepandemic level and the … [Read more...]
They’ll Tell You Inflation is “Under Control”
When you hear that inflation is under control, all you need to do is sink your teeth into Your Survival Guy’s food inflation chart to get the real story. You and I know that government knows no limits when it comes to spending your money. It will create dollars out of thin air because it can, and expect you to absorb the devaluation of your own hard earned currency. You and I don’t have the luxury of a printing press in the basement, and we need to live our lives with fiscal responsibility. There’s a word worth repeating. Responsibility. It is up to you to take control of your … [Read more...]
Downgrades Signal Trouble in the Job Market
At the Financial Times, Claire Jones and Kate Duguid report on downgrades in job creation numbers that put into question the strength of recent reports. They write: The US economy added 275,000 jobs last month, beating forecasts, but big downgrades to previous figures complicated the outlook for the US economy. The non-farm payroll figures for February surpassed economists’ predictions of 200,000 new jobs and indicated that the US services sector remains strong. However, February’s 275,000 jobs number was eclipsed by the revised totals for January and December, when 167,000 fewer posts … [Read more...]
China Makes Record Mortgage Rate Cuts
Jamie Chisholm of MarketWatch is reporting that China is cutting mortgage rates by a record amount to help the struggling property sector. Chisholm writes: China made its biggest ever cut to mortgage rates on Tuesday, as the authorities try to support the struggling property sector, though the response from stock markets was muted. The People’s Bank of China said that the country’s lenders would reduce their five-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 25 basis points to 3.95%, a bigger cut than expected and the first since June last year. The one-year LPR was maintained at 3.45%. [...] “To … [Read more...]
Japan Enters Technical Recession
Japan's GDP shrank unexpectedly in the fourth quarter of 2023, putting the country into a technical recession. A technical recession occurs when a nation's GDP drops for two consecutive quarters. That shouldn't be confused with an official recession, which is usually determined by a group of economists such as the NBER in the United States. In The Wall Street Journal, Megumi Fujikawa and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa report on the Japanese economy, writing: Japan dropped a rank to become the world’s fourth-largest economy after a weak end to 2023, as growth in tourism spending failed to offset … [Read more...]
Deflation Tightens Its Grip on China
Jason Douglas of The Wall Street Journal reports consumer prices in China fell at the sharpest pace in more than 14 years. Douglas writes: Deflation is becoming more entrenched in China, with consumer prices falling in January at their steepest pace in more than 14 years—a stark symptom of deepening economic malaise that spells trouble for the global economy. The latest data suggest China faces a growing risk of slipping into a longer-term spell of falling prices that becomes harder to reverse the longer it lasts. [...] That means, according to many economists, that this spell of subdued … [Read more...]
What We Learned from the Federal Reserve Yesterday
What we learned from the Federal Reserve yesterday was just how tightly the market holds on to every word from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. No sooner did he alter his language on potential rate cuts and markets sold off, especially the speculative Nasdaq. Look at the long-term path of interest rates above and the DJIA, and you can see the connection between interest rates and prices. Now we’re stuck in this no man’s land where finally fixed income investors can get some interest on their savings, and sure enough, the market has a fit. Interest rates are hardly in need of a cut. … [Read more...]
Europe’s Economy Falls Further Behind U.S.
Paul Hannon and Yuka Hayashi of The Wall Street Journal are reporting a growth gap between the U.S. and the eurozone. One factor threatening to weigh further on the European economy is its proximity to geopolitical flashpoints. They write: Europe’s economy stagnated in the final three months of last year, expanding a divide between a booming U.S. economy and a European continent that is increasingly left behind. The fresh economic data showed higher borrowing costs had compounded the earlier impact of higher energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By contrast, the … [Read more...]
Are Interest Rate Cuts on the Horizon?
Steve Matthews of Bloomberg reports that the Federal Open Market Committee is poised to hold rates but may start considering cuts. Matthews writes: The Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates steady for a fourth straight meeting but avoid signaling an imminent interest-rate cut. The Federal Open Market Committee is poised to keep rates in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% at its two-day policy meeting ending Wednesday, a 22-year high first reached in July. The rate decision and accompanying statement will be released at 2 p.m. in Washington. Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press … [Read more...]
Consumer Confidence Climbs to Two-Year High
Jeffry Bartash of MarketWatch is reporting that the U.S. consumer confidence index climbed to a two-year high. Bartash writes: Consumer confidence jumped in January to a two-year high of 114.8, a survey showed, reflecting slower inflation, a record stock market and improved growth in the economy. The closely followed index advanced from a revised 108.0 in December, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the index to register 115.0. The last time the index was higher was in December 2021. [...] And the next move by the Federal … [Read more...]
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