The White House reports that President Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill” promises the largest tax cut in US history, aiming to boost wages, take-home pay, and economic growth for working- and middle-class Americans. A Council of Economic Advisers state-by-state analysis shows potential long-term wage gains from $4,300 to $14,800 and take-home pay increases from $6,000 to $16,500, depending on the state. The bill also includes major spending cuts and deficit reduction, targeting long-term prosperity through tax incentives and pro-growth policies. They write:
President Donald J. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill will be an economic windfall for working and middle-class Americans, delivering the largest tax cut in history, higher wages, higher take-home pay, and much more — coupled with generational spending cuts and deficit reduction that will position the U.S. for real prosperity.
Its massive benefits will be felt by Americans in all 50 states, according to a new state-by-state analysis from the Council of Economic Advisers:
State Long-run wage increase
(Inflation-adjusted)Take-home pay increase
(Typical family with two kids)Alabama $4,800 to $9,100 $6,500 to $10,800 Alaska $6,400 to $12,200 $8,100 to $13,900 Arizona $5,800 to $11,100 $7,500 to $12,800 Arkansas $4,500 to $8,600 $6,200 to $10,300 California $7,500 to $14,300 $9,200 to $16,000 Colorado $7,000 to $13,300 $8,700 to $15,000 Connecticut $7,300 to $14,000 $7,300 to $14,000 Delaware $6,100 to $11,700 $7,800 to $13,400 Florida $5,800 to $11,000 $7500 to $12,700 Georgia $5,800 to $11,000 $7,500 to $12,700 Hawaii $7,000 to $13,300 $8,700 to $15,000 Idaho $5,500 to $10,500 $7,200 to $12,200 Illinois $6,200 to $11,800 $7,900 to $13,500 Indiana $5,100 to $9,800 $6,800 to $11,500 Iowa $5,200 to $10,000 $6,900 to $11,700 Kansas $5,200 to $10,000 $6,900 to $11,700 Kentucky $4,700 to $8,900 $6,400 to $10,600 Louisiana $4,700 to $8,900 $6,400 to $10,600 Maine $5,400 to $10,300 $7,100 to $12,000 Maryland $7,200 to $13,800 $8,900 to $15,500 Massachusetts $7,700 to $14,800 $9,400 to $16,500 Michigan $5,200 to $10,000 $6,900 to $11,700 Minnesota $6,300 to $12,100 $8,000 to $13,800 Mississippi $4,300 to $8,100 $6,000 to $9,800 Missouri $5,200 to $9,900 $6,900 to $11,600 Montana $5,300 to $10,000 $7,000 to $11,700 Nebraska $5,700 to $10,800 $7,400 to $12,500 Nevada $5,800 to $11,000 $7,500 to $12,700 New Hampshire $7,000 to $13,300 $8,700 to $15,000 New Jersey $7,700 to $14,700 $9,400 to $16,400 New Mexico $4,800 to $9,100 $6,500 to $10,800 New York $6,800 to $13,000 $8,500 to $14,700 North Carolina $5,500 to $10,500 $7,200 to $12,200 North Dakota $5,500 to $10,500 $7,200 to $12,200 Ohio $5,200 to $10,000 $6,900 to $11,700 Oklahoma $4,800 to $9,100 $6,500 to $10,800 Oregon $6,000 to $11,400 $7,700 to $13,100 Pennsylvania $5,700 to $10,900 $7,400 to $12,600 Rhode Island $6,300 to $12,000 $8,000 to $13,700 South Carolina $5,200 to $9,900 $6,900 to $11,600 South Dakota $5,400 to $10,300 $7,100 to $12,000 Tennessee $5,300 to $10,000 $7,000 to $11,700 Texas $6,000 to $11,300 $7,700 to $13,000 Utah $6,600 to $12,500 $8,300 to $14,200 Vermont $5,900 to $11,300 $7,600 to $13,000 Virginia $6,900 to $13,100 $8,600 to $14,800 Washington $7,200 to $13,800 $8,900 to $15,500 West Virginia $4,300 to $8,200 $6,000 to $9,900 Wisconsin $5,500 to $10,400 $7,200 to $12,000 Wyoming $5,200 to $9,900 $6,900 to $11,600
Methodological notes:
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The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) calculates how investment, GDP, and wages increase in response to lower effective tax rates (lower statutory rates, bigger deduction for pass-through businesses, and full expensing that businesses will enjoy on new equipment, R&D, and factories) using standard academic methods that were successful in accurately forecasting the effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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Take-home pay — defined as after-tax earnings — increases because wages rise and less money is taken out of workers’ paychecks.
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The CEA also looks at the further boost to GDP from the stronger incentive to work (lower taxes boost labor supply) and the greater spending power that Americans will have.
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More about the methodology can be found here.
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