Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

Disclosure

  • About Us
    • Contributors
    • Archives
    • Dick Young’s Safe America
    • The Final Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report
    • You’ve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What?
    • Dick Young’s Research Key: Anecdotal Evidence Gathering
    • Crisis at Vanguard
  • Investment Analysis
    • Bonds
    • Currencies and Gold
    • Dividend Investing
    • ETFs & Funds
    • Investment Strategy
    • Retirement Investing
    • Stocks
    • The Efficient Frontier
  • Investment Counsel
  • Dynamic Maximizers®
  • Retirement Compounders®
  • Free Email Signup

Portfolio Strategy: Watch the Divergences

October 2, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The global economy is in recovery mode. Europe is on the mend. China is improving. Economic growth in the U.S. is accelerating.

It’s all clear for the economy and stock market then, right? That seems to be the opinion of the average investor. The Conference Board’s consumer expectations survey for stocks shows that investor sentiment is near its highest level of the bull market.

So what’s the rub?

The bond market, the gold market, and stock market internals tell a different story.

The 30-year bond ended yesterday at a yield of 2.66%–giving up almost all of its post-election gains. If the outlook for growth is so bright, why are bond yields at their lowest levels of the year?

And if the economy is so strong, why is the SPDR GoldShares ETF on a tear? Gold is up 16% YTD compared to a 10% gain for the S&P 500.

A weaker dollar may explain some of the strength in gold, but a weaker dollar doesn’t explain falling bond yields, nor does it explain the recent strength in the defensive sectors of the market and the recent weakness in the more cyclical sectors of the market.

Market divergences are no reason to make wholesale changes to your portfolio, but they should make you think twice about increasing the risk in your portfolio because the outlook is so bright.

Share this:

  • Email
  • Twitter
  • Facebook

You Might Also Like:

  • Income Investing: The Nightmare is Ending
  • Portfolio Strategy: Is This What is Driving the Asset Bubble?
  • Portfolio Strategy: Looking Past the End of the Bull
  • Author
  • Recent Posts
Jeremy Jones, CFA
Jeremy Jones, CFA, CFP® is the Director of Research at Young Research & Publishing Inc., and the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. was ranked #5 in CNBC's 2021 Financial Advisor Top 100. Jeremy is also a contributing editor of youngresearch.com.
Latest posts by Jeremy Jones, CFA (see all)
  • Now You Can Own Your Vacation and It Doesn’t Have to Be a Time Share - May 24, 2022
  • Big Banks Adopting Blockchain for Short-Term Trading - May 23, 2022
  • BULLWHIPPED? Inventory Overhang Could Slow Growth in Certain Sectors - May 20, 2022

Search Young Research

Most Popular

  • MARKET CHAOS: This May Take Time, Here’s How to Prepare
  • PRICES SOAR: Diesel Shortage Could Cripple America's Economy
  • Your Survival Guy: “Sell in May, Buy After Labor Day?”
  • All-Powerful Money Managers Voting YOUR Money Targeted by Senate GOP
  • Institutional Investors Fall in Love with Oil, Again
  • COMMODITY CRUNCH: Will Tesla Buy a Cobalt Mine?
  • The Power of a Compound Interest Table
  • CRYPTO: Has the Fire Gone Out?
  • The Innovation Bubble Goes Bust
  • HORDING CASH: Funds Hold the Highest Level of Cash Since 9/11

Don’t Miss

Default Risk Among the Many Concerns with Annuities

Risk and Reward: An Efficient Frontier

How to be a Billionaire: Proven Strategies from the Titans of Wealth

Could this Be the Vanguard GNMA Winning Edge?

Cryptocosm and Life After Google

Warning: Avoid Mutual Fund Year End Distributions

Is Gold a Good Long-term Investment?

How to Invest in Gold

Vanguard Wellington (VWELX): The Original Balanced Fund

What is the Best Gold ETF for Investing and Trading?

Procter & Gamble (PG) Stock: The Only True Dividend King

The Dividend King of the North

You’ll Love This if You’re Dreaming of an Active Retirement Life

RSS The Latest at Richardcyoung.com

  • Harvard Professor Calls Homeschooling a “Threat to Society”
  • Biden IGNORES Americans’ Pain at the Pump, Touts “Green Transition”
  • The Virtue of Trump Supporters vs. Antifa and ESG Investing is Like This…
  • Why Does Joe Biden Put Americans Last?
  • PRIMARIES: Watch GOP Voter Turnout Tonight
  • The Supreme Court Must Always Protect the Constitution
  • Our Daily Bread Threatened?
  • Watch Out for Your Worst Enemy
  • Farmer Tells Steve Bannon Biden’s Inflation Is Ruining His Business
  • PARTY’S OVER JOE: Republicans Crush Democrats in Local Elections

About Us

  • About Young Research
  • Archives
  • Contributors

Our Partners

  • Richard C. Young & Co.
  • Richardcyoung.com

Copyright © 2022 | Terms & Conditions

 

Loading Comments...
 

    loading Cancel
    Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
    Email check failed, please try again
    Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.