This falls under the heading of correlation does note equal causation, but so what. It gives me a reason to write about football—and to put up a Dick Butkus video.
If you are a Patriots fan, I have some bad news for you. Your team is in the Super Bowl, but that probably means your portfolio is headed into the tank.
When the Patriots play in the Super bowl with Brady as the Quarterback and Belichick as the head coach, the stock market goes on to have a stinker of a year. Check out the numbers in the table below.
Brady-Belichick Super Bowl appearances are a curse for investors. In the Pats five Super Bowl appearances under the duo, the Dow has fallen in three of those years.
The average Dow return in years when Brady and Belichick are in the Super Bowl is -8.1% and the median (middle value) return is -0.60%.
The only good news for your portfolio if you are a Pats fan is that it that you might as well route for your team because in years when the Pats win, the Dow’s only falls an average of 4.7% when the Pats win. But, yes there is a but…-4.7% might be too much to hope for this year because the game is in Glendale, AZ. The last time Brady and Belichick were in the Super Bowl in Glendale, the Dow cratered almost 34%.
Let’s hope the past is not prologue!
In all seriousness, here’s to big hits and a good game. Go Pats!
| Year | Super Bowl | W/L | Location | DJIA Return |
| 2002 | Super Bowl XXXVI | W | New Orleans, LA | -16.80% |
| 2004 | Super Bowl XXXVIII | W | Houston, TX | 3.20% |
| 2005 | Super Bowl XXXIX | W | Jacksonville, FL | -0.60% |
| 2008 | Super Bowl XLII | L | Glendale, AZ | -33.80% |
| 2012 | Super Bowl XLVI | L | Indianapolis, IN | 7.30% |
| 2014 | Super Bowl XLIX | ? | Glendale, AZ | |
| Average | -8.10% | |||
| Median | -0.60% |
Jeremy Jones, CFA
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