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Archives for October 2022

Guess What Your Survival Got for an Early Christmas Present

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Happy Monday from Your Survival Guy. Hope you had a great weekend. For us, it felt like Christmas came early on Friday when our kids visited home from school. Something tells me it wasn’t just because they “missed” us while we were in Paris. I’d like to think they did. They tell us they did. A part of me wants to think they wanted to spend quality time together. But I can imagine the texts between them: “weekend?” “Not much…” “Home? Bet M/D brought stuff home for us from Paris” “K” What’s hard about when your kids go away to school is that they come back to visit (that’s the … [Read more...]

How Long Can Japan Maintain Yield Curve Control?

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Mohamed El-Erian suggests that Japan's policy of yield curve control will inevitably be ended. So how long can it last? He writes in the Financial Times: After occupying a central role in international trade and currency developments in the 1980s and 1990s, Japan’s influence on the global economy and markets gradually declined. “What happens in Japan stays in Japan” became the mantra for many. But this could change if the Japanese authorities do not prepare well for what increasingly looks like an inevitable exit from its “yield curve control” policy. YCC is a monetary policy regime … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy’s Hunkering Down in His Cave, Join Me

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Happy Friday. What a trashing in the tech sector. Meta is off 70% year to date, Amazon is getting trashed this morning, and Apple’s earnings disappoint. Your Survival Guy can tell you my new iPhone 14 Pro is heavy and glitchy. iPhones account for half of Apple’s revenues. Seems top-heavy to me. When you look at the carnage of the so called FAANGs, you can see why investors are freaking out. Not Your Survival Guy. Slow and steady is a way of life. My life, at least. There’s no problem with getting rich slowly. I have no problem collecting dividends and interest when some investors find them … [Read more...]

Xi Jinping’s New Market Reality in China

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For decades the Western world has been growing closer to China. Now, suggests Diana Choyleva in the Financial Times, with the consolidation of power over China by Xi Jinping and his loyalists, that trend is set to reverse. She writes: Ideology and national security trump all other considerations for Xi, including growth. He will double down on “common prosperity”, achieving economic self-sufficiency and pressing to bring Taiwan definitively under mainland control. For foreign investors in China, this means new investments will be “steered” (more or less politely) to the priorities set by the … [Read more...]

PETROSTATE: U.S. Exporting Record Amounts of Oil

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As Joe Biden unloads the strategic petroleum reserve and oil producers sell to Europe and Asia, the United States is exporting the most oil ever. Myles McCormick and James Politi report for the Financial Times: The US is exporting record volumes of oil and taking on a bigger role as a fuel supplier in response to the global energy crunch caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, even as tensions flare over petrol prices at home. Combined US exports of crude oil and refined petroleum products surged to 11.4mn barrels a day last week, according to data released on Wednesday by the Energy … [Read more...]

WHERE’S SHERYL? Meta Revenues Decline Again

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In the second quarterly financial report since Sheryl Sandberg left Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook), revenues again declined. Salvador Rodriguez reports for The Wall Street Journal: Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. META -24.55%decrease; red down pointing triangle posted its second revenue decline in a row, as the social-media giant wrestles with a vortex of challenging business conditions that have combined to shave more than half a trillion dollars from its market value so far this year. The company reported quarterly revenue of $27.7 billion, down more than 4% from a year ago, … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy: Arriving in Style at Le Bristol Hotel, Paris

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OK, so you want to go to Paris? Your Survival Guy is back from another three-week research trip, the second this year, and I have plenty to report. For one, Paris is open for business, big time, as travelers from around the world, (sans China) are moving about the country. As for Paris itself, especially in the service/tourism industry, it’s at maximum capacity based on the sheer demand post-Covid and lack of labor supply. There’s still a hangover from lockdowns and the reluctance of workers—still living off government payouts—to get back to work. Sound familiar? Now, you didn’t come … [Read more...]

Congestion FINALLY Declining at Ports in Southern California

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In The Wall Street Journal, Paul Berger reports that the congestion at California's southern container ports that made headlines earlier in 2022 has finally begun to subside. He writes: The backup of container ships off Southern California’s coast that was at the heart of U.S. supply chain congestion during the Covid-19 pandemic has effectively disappeared. The queue of ships waiting to unload at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach fell from a peak of 109 ships in January to four vessels this week, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California. Shipping specialists say fewer … [Read more...]

FISCALLY FIT: Who Are America’s Top Performing Governors?

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You may be wondering, after the last two decades, if there is anywhere left in America where fiscal conservatism remains important. The federal budget has ballooned out to Banana Republic-like proportions. It turns out there are still some pockets of America where governors put a priority on maintaining the financial strength of their states. At the Cato Institute, Chris Edwards and Ilana Blumsack have ranked America's governors based on their fiscal performance. They write: The nation’s economy was damaged by the pandemic in 2020, but it bounced back strongly and grew until the end of 2021. … [Read more...]