Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

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The Three Bubbles Threatening Your Portfolio Today

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OK, it’s time to talk about bubbles. Investor Jeremy Grantham of GMO fame has called a few bubbles over his stellar career. He sees three today: Bonds, stocks, and real estate. Your Survival Guy, not famous at all, fought through the live-fire of managing client money during two brutal bubbles already in this young century. It wasn’t easy, but we got through it. That’s what I see today. Knowing how to survive the worst of times is an acquired skill, and I’ve seen my share of it. When I think about a real estate bubble, I think about you. What can you do today or in the next few years to ease … [Read more...]

Crushing Words to Avoid: “We’re Disappointed in You”

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It’s breathtaking looking at prices today and thinking about what things are really worth. I know, I know, worth is whatever someone else is willing to pay. What a bore. But, what if you’re not in this to be a seller? What if your interest is the wellbeing of your family, and selling isn’t your end game? Where, instead, you’re caring for your investments, like your love for a child, in perpetuity. Would you ever sell your child? Most of the time, the answer is no. Thanks for the memories! When you’re working in a family business, as I do, you understand the fear of disappointment real … [Read more...]

Why Service Is King in 1(800)# Teenage Wasteland

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Service is King, even today when many financial firms treat it like the Joker. Try getting a copy of your 1099, or figuring out a K-1. What you’re faced with is, perhaps, hours in a phone queue maze with no satisfactory answer. Some of these firms, not Fidelity, are too big and end up failing simple tasks. Other’s are left offering funds that are too big (like some of Vanguard’s) and then fail to meet the needs of investors (such as ESG funds from BlackRock and others) while trying to save the world. All you want is what you asked for, is that so hard? For some, in a word, yes. Action Line: … [Read more...]

Inflation? Yes.

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You don’t need to read the latest Producer Prices report to see that inflation is here. All you need to do is go for a walk around your neighborhood to see home prices, go shopping for groceries, or open the utility bills, and you see higher prices for all. Pandemic or not, prices are higher. You don’t have to be a genius to understand what China’s attempting to accomplish with its foray into digital currencies. Tired of buying worthless Treasuries, they want a plan B. What happens when China steadily tries to replace the dollar as the reserve currency? Both China and the U.S. government … [Read more...]

Fidelity Investments #1: Hires 4,000 Focuses on YOU

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The financial services business is booming. The keyword being “services.” Because as millions of existing and new retirees look for help, the demand for service is stretching some firms’ capacity to help them. Not Fidelity’s, because, as you know, Fidelity is #1. With all the talk about robo-advisers, one fact remains with automated services; nothing can replace a live conversation with a financial adviser. I know my customers. I know when their emotions are high, and that’s something I don’t see a robot catching. Service is a huge part of getting your finances right. I know you don’t … [Read more...]

It’s as Simple as 4%? No, Not Anymore

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In my conversation with you this week, we talked about the appropriate draw rate from your portfolio. We discussed how the days of a four percent draw are history. With interest rates nailed to the floor, you need to adjust accordingly. Thankfully, most of you have, I hope. Take a look at Dick Young’s investment North Star. That, in a nutshell, is how savers are penalized by Washington. Now, look at the dividend yield on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Do the math. A simple back of the napkin calculation of a 50/50 portfolio yields a fraction of what it used to. These are not easy … [Read more...]

One Word Explains the Worth of Your Neighbors’ House

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In my conversations with you, you’re telling me home prices are crazy. It really doesn’t matter where you live. Take, for example, a realtor and prospective client I was talking with yesterday. He operates in the mountain west and said he has tons of buyers, just no homes to sell. No supply. And that’s residential real estate today in a nutshell—supply. On a recent trip to Key West, we talked with a realtor getting ready to show a house as we were walking by. Curious, we asked if we could take a quick look. This tastefully done home was a perfect, cozy, old town Key West conch retreat. The … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy Stock: Witness This Dividend Miracle

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Sometimes it’s hard to talk politics. So let’s talk about religion. Because when it comes to kneeling down in front of the stock altar, IBM has got some religion. I’m talking about DIVIDEND RELIGION—paying one since 1916. Can I get an AMEN! Look at the chart for my Survival Guy Stock above and consider life back in 1986 for a moment. Tom Cruise was lighting it up on the big screen with Top Gun. IBM? Not so much. (Talk about needing to put out a fire.) But it still paid a dividend that year. Sometimes setting it and forgetting it works wonders. What were you doing in 1986? Me? I was 14 … [Read more...]

Don’t Chase Yield Off a Cliff, Do This Instead

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You may think the phrase "speculative investor-driven home price bubble" sounds familiar. If so, you may be old enough to remember 2008, when an extremely low interest rate environment, encouragement by the government to lend, and yield chasing investors on Wall Street combined to tank the economy. Deja vu, right? Ryan Dezember reports in The Wall Street Journal: A bidding war broke out this winter at a new subdivision north of Houston. But the prize this time was the entire subdivision, not just a single suburban house, illustrating the rise of big investors as a potent new force in the U.S. … [Read more...]