Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.4% in Q3 2025, up from 3.8% in Q2, driven by stronger consumer spending, investment, exports, and government spending, while imports declined. Private services and goods-producing industries saw growth of 5.3% and 3.6%, respectively, partly offset by a 0.3% drop in government output. Prices rose moderately, with the PCE price index up 2.8% (2.9% excluding food and energy), and corporate profits increased by $175.6 billion. The Bea writes:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the updated estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
Due to the recent government shutdown, this updated report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the third estimate originally scheduled for December 19, 2025.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below.
Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected upturns in investment, exports, and government spending, as well as an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter than in the second.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.
From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases of 5.3 percent in real value added for private services-producing industries and 3.6 percent for private goods-producing industries that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.3 percent in real value added for government.
Real gross output increased 3.2 percent in the third quarter, reflecting increases of 4.4 percent for private services-producing industries and 2.1 percent for government that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.1 percent for private goods-producing industries.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.9 percent, both the same as previously estimated.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.4 percent in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 3.4 percent, the same as previously estimated.
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $175.6 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $9.5 billion.
