Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball, revisits market inefficiencies and why they exist in his new book The Undoing Project. Here William Easterly reviews the new book for The Wall Street Journal. Easterly calls the book "a spectacular account of two great men who faced up to uncertainty and the limits of human reason." Easterly writes: Michael Lewis’s brilliant book celebrates Daniel Kahneman andAmos Tversky, Israeli-American psychologists who are our age’s apostles of doubt about human reason. The timing is fortunate, given that overconfident experts may have caused and then failed to … [Read more...]
How to Know When to Buy Stocks
One of my favorite financial writers of all-time, the late, great Richard Russell would be making a huge call this week in his Dow Theory Letters. Why? Because on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Transportation Average reached a new record high—previously set in 2014—and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also hit a record high. According to Dow Theory, if the transports stocks, such as railroad, shipping, delivery trucks etc., which move the goods that are used to produce things, are hitting new highs and at the same time the industrial stocks that make the end product are also hitting new highs, … [Read more...]
Fidelity Investments: 6 Simple Habits to a Better Life
You need a plan. That’s my #1 takeaway from Fidelity’s “Six Habits of Successful Investors.” One of the most common problems I come across when speaking with prospective clients of Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., is their lack of a plan. A lot of times they own good stuff. But they don’t know how everything fits together. Picture this: You’ve set up a room full of presents, your family is anxiously awaiting by the fire, and you forgot to label the gifts. That’s how it feels to own good stuff without a plan. The power of investing to build wealth and achieve long-term goals has been proven … [Read more...]
Portfolio Strategy: Groceries at Amazon.com? How to Lose Money
Wouldn’t your life be easier if the kitchen cabinets and the fridge magically replenished themselves? That’s the thrust behind Amazon’s move into grocery home delivery. Take it from me, the financing runway will have to be pretty long for Amazon to be successful in this business. Grocery home delivery is where I cut my teeth in the investment world. I remember learning that difficult lesson about Internet investing after spending the summer of my junior year at Babson as an intern for a grocery home delivery startup company. When the job was done, I liked the idea so much that I invested my … [Read more...]
Trouble at LPL?
After a decade of heading up one of the biggest brokerage firms, LPL Financial Holdings Corp., Mark Casady is retiring. This may be the first step toward a sale of LPL, as The Wall Street Journal reports that the company has been considering "strategic alternatives." News of Mr. Casady’s departure follows the October disclosure that LPL is considering strategic alternatives, which are being led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and could include a sale of the company. Messrs. Arnold and Casady declined to comment on the review process. But Mr. Arnold and lead board director James Putnam both … [Read more...]
December RAGE Gauge: It’s not all Guns and Roses, Keep Your Eye on the Gold
Yours truly has the December Rage Gauge tallied, and it’s actually the best I’ve seen all year: Neutral to Elevated Risk. Thank you Mr. Trump. Bond investors, if you listened to us and kept maturities short, you should be smiling. Not true for the turkey-faced, long-term bondholders that stooped for nickels and got steamrolled by the selloff. Speaking of steamrolled, the White House must be feeling joyful about the recent unemployment rate of 4.6%. But before they light that candle, let’s not forget the workforce cake shrank to a near-four decade low with a participation rate of only … [Read more...]
Your Retirement Life: Stay on Beat
One of my favorite drummers is the Rolling Stones' Charlie Watts, known for keeping it simple, keeping the beat, and playing to the song. He doesn’t look for something that’s not there. There’s a story about how Watts could play a song in the studio then have the volume turned off, with everyone leaving the room, continue playing in silence, and when they came back in and turned the music back on he was still on beat. Think about that for a moment. Let it sink in as you consider what’s going on today. There’s a lot of noise out there. Imagine turning it off. Would you stop what you’re … [Read more...]
Trump’s Treasury Pick a Missed Opportunity
Who will be the real winners from Treasury nominee Steve Mnuchin? My gut tells me it won’t be Main Street. Trump needed to thread the needle with the pick, appeasing the millions of voters that can’t stand Wall Street. Mnuchin is a Goldman Sachs guy. That’s not exactly a pick for the Forgotten Man. I hope Mnuchin turns out to be a solid pick. But the fact that he made money investing in the ruins post 2008, and investing in Hollywood is not why they voted for Trump. Guys with special access were supposed to be the losers in this election. Guys on Harley-Davidsons didn’t vote for a Wall … [Read more...]
This State is Open for Business, Here’s Why
You shouldn’t have to join a union if you don’t want to. But that’s exactly what happens to teachers in states that don’t have right-to-work laws. A friend on mine who is a history teacher in non-right-to-work Boston, Massachusetts complains about the dues automatically deducted from his paycheck. He has stood up in meetings to complain about the lack of freedom. When Becky and I see him and his wife on Friday in Boston, I’ll tell him that there’s still hope. Teachers in Wisconsin, thanks to Governor Scott Walker’s reforms, have a choice whether to join or not. They have voted with their … [Read more...]
Annuities Hammered by Conflict of Interest Rules (Finally)
Variable annuity sales have been hammered this year. A new report from Cerulli Associates projects that sales will continue to fall at an annualized rate of 10% through 2017 and 2018. The decline in sales results from a new rule from the Department of Labor that regulates conflicts of interest. Variable annuities don’t belong in most portfolios to begin with. The DOL Fiduciary Rule is a little late to the party. John Sullivan reports for 401kSpecialist Magazine: Calling it the “primary issue facing the VA industry is the DOL Conflict of Interest Rule,” Cerulli notes the rule extends … [Read more...]
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