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Investment Research Since 1978

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GET OUT: The Escape from California is Accelerating

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Last year, Americans in blue states and cities across the country fled the violence and disease in their cities, buying homes in places like Florida, Texas, New Hampshire, and Wyoming. The truth is, many of them had been looking for the chance to get out for years, but until remote work gave them the opportunity, they were stuck paying high taxes and suffering the high costs of living. With COVID and looting subsiding it was possible the trend would reverse, but in fact in 2021 in California, it's accelerating. A new study from Stanford reports that more businesses have already left … [Read more...]

BIDENOMICS: Inflation, COVID Failure, Drive Plunge in Consumer Confidence

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Americans are not happy with Joe Biden's economy. Soaring prices and concerns about Biden's strategy for fighting COVID have undermined Americans' confidence in the economy. The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell from 125.1 in July to 113.8 in August, the lowest level since February. The report stated: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August, following a decrease in July (a downward revision). The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), down from 125.1 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and … [Read more...]

THE NEXT BIG SHORT: Paulson Predicts Crypto Will Go to Zero

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You may remember hedge fund manager John Paulson from the movie The Big Short. He was the one that couldn’t believe what was happening in the real estate market and believed the system would implode. He was right. Now he’s dead against cryptocurrencies, much like Your Survival Guy. In a recent interview with Bloomberg's David Rubenstein, Paulson described cryptocurrencies as "a limited supply of nothing."  He also predicted the speculative asset would go to zero. The NY Post reports: Hedge fund manager John Paulson made $20 billion predicting the downfall of the US housing market in 2008. … [Read more...]

Is the Market Bracing for a Correction?

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In The Wall Street Journal, Karen Langley reports on some shifting in the market that is taking place, with shares of defensive stocks taking a leading role. Moves like this have sometimes signaled preparation in the market for a correction. She writes: Some of the hottest stocks in the U.S. are pointing to an economic cool-down. Utilities and healthcare are among the best-performing groups in the S&P 500 so far this quarter, with gains of 7.8% and 6.6%, respectively, compared with a 4.9% rise in the broad stock index. Big winners include utility NextEra Energy Inc., NEE +0.25% which … [Read more...]

September Rage Gauge Update: High RISK ALERT

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If you’re paying attention to what’s going on in Afghanistan and here at home with COVID you have reasons for concern. Let me remind you, my Rage Gauge right now is at full tilt, high RISK. Clearly those in power seek a different future than what you and I may have in mind for our families and loved ones. A future where they decide how you live your life. A great RESET is in the works. Pay attention. Now, is when you prepare accordingly not when more danger arrives at your doorstep. Your Survival Guy talks with investors like you every single day. Don’t let inertia ruin your future when you … [Read more...]

Can We Still Afford the Riverboat Cruise?

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Are you falling for the oldest trick in the book? Here’s how it reads. Managers today draw you in with low-cost index funds and past performance—not necessarily in that order. Then, once you’re in the door, they sell you on other stuff, like toxic variable annuities, until you’re blue in the face. It’s hard not to fall for the sales pitch. I get it. Here’s what happens. It’s Sunday morning. You don’t have a care in the world. Frank Sinatra is playing in the background. Life is good. Then you peel open the quarterly funds report in the Journal and look at the performance like a box score … [Read more...]

IT’S A GAMBLE: First Bitcoin ETF Will Be Loaded with Risk

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Fund companies are racing hard to be the first to offer a bitcoin ETF. The Wall Street Journal's Michael Wursthorn reports on the risks of such funds, writing: Despite the additional safeguards, investors in such funds would have to deal with issues associated with trading futures, as well as the risks around cryptocurrencies. Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual-fund research at CFRA, warned that futures-based ETFs rarely replicate the performance of the underlying market they track. The reason is pricing fluctuations between futures contracts and the spot market, especially if demand … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy: The Rolling Stones Drummer Charlie Watts

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The drumming world lost a legend with the passing of The Rolling Stones drummer Charlie Watts. In 1989, when Your Survival Guy was a senior in high school, my friend Dave and I went to see The Stones live at Sullivan Stadium. It was the Steel Wheels tour and to say it was a production is an understatement. I remember walking along the train tracks at Sullivan and seeing the army of 18-wheelers parked behind the massive stage that, as I learned yesterday, was designed by Watts along with all of the band’s album sleeves. He was quite the force. And what a force he created in that stage. … [Read more...]

TRAFFIC JAM: Shipping Clogged at Major Ports

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Shipping is clogged at many major American ports as corporations buy ahead to beat inflation and high holiday demand. Paul Berger reports in The Wall Street Journal: Container ships are stacking up again off Southern California’s jammed ports, as a flood of imports and logjams in domestic logistics networks hit operations at the biggest U.S. gateway for seaborne trade. Thirty-seven container ships were anchored off the adjacent ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in recent days, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California, the highest number since February, when 40 ships waited … [Read more...]

ETF Investing: Avoid the Madness of Crowds

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Look at the huge money flowing into all the same stuff. This isn’t rocket science. At some point, when the fuel runneth dry—down, down, down they shall fall. Action Line: Prepare your portfolio now to avoid the madness of crowds. In The Wall Street Journal, Michael Wursthorn reports on the massive amount of money flowing into ETFs. He writes: Investors poured $705 billion into exchange-traded funds through the first seven months of the year, pushing 2021’s world-wide tally to a record $9.1 trillion, according to data from Morningstar Inc. Net flows so far this year have nearly … [Read more...]