The S&P 500 is up 15% since July 10 and up close to 50% from its March low. What's the catalyst for recent gains? A strong second-quarter earnings season. More than 75% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings beat analysts' estimates. Strong second-quarter earnings gave the minutiae-focused quarterly earnings crowd the courage to leap back into stocks. Even after the recent rally, there remains a truckload of cash sitting on the sidelines. But are quarterly earnings a reliable signal of future sustainable stock gains? In this case, I think not. Closer examination of the … [Read more...]
The 401(k) is Broken
The 401(k) is broken. Year-end 401(k) assets were $2.4 trillion, down $600 billion from year-end 2007 including the inflow from employer match and employee contributions. Average participant investment performance was down 27%. That's average. Many did much, much worse and some people are retiring this year facing the grim possibility of outliving their money. In fact, four of the top five holdings in 401(k) plans by asset value had one-year returns through March 9, 2009, of -46.2%, -53.3%, -41.5%, and -40.8%. The S&P 500 was down 47%. Nearly four dozen target-date funds did even worse … [Read more...]
Default Risk Among the Many Concerns with Annuities
The recent turmoil in the equity and credit markets has created angst and panic among investors. Emotionally charged investment decisions are being made without consideration to the long-term consequences. The insurance industry thrives in this type of environment. They offer neatly packaged products with bells and whistles that befuddle even the most experienced investors. The opportunities offered appear too good to be true and they are. A popular product with investors is variable annuities because they offer guarantees. The truth is, they are expensive and are anything but risk free. … [Read more...]
Bond Funds
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal by Jonathan Clements highlighted the advantages of low-cost bond funds. Jonathan correctly points out that low-cost bond funds consistently outperform their high-cost cousins. This is not because low-cost bond funds are run by superior investment managers. It’s simply a result of the funds’ low expenses. As an example, take Vanguard GNMA with an expense ratio of .20% and Franklin US Government Securities with an expense ratio of .72%. Both funds focus exclusively on GNMA securities. The difference in their expense ratios is .52%. According … [Read more...]
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