The NY Post reports that while bankruptcies are still nowhere near Great Recession levels, they are rising noticeably. John Aidan Byrne writes: New York state’s bankruptcy filings, for instance, have risen steadily the past three years, hitting 34,711 in 2018, up from 30,112 in 2016, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI), based on data from Epiq Systems. More consumers nationwide are falling behind on their payments and filing for bankruptcy to resolve overwhelming debt loads. And low unemployment, an uptick in average wages and the latest Fed interest rate cut have not … [Read more...]
Could This Be the End for the Mortgage Interest Deduction?
For decades the mortgage interest tax deduction has rewarded homeowners at the expense of other taxpayers, but with the 2017 tax reform, much of the benefit for homeowners was eliminated. Most middle class homeowners achieved better tax results by taking the standard deduction, bringing the percentage of taxpayers using the mortgage interest tax deduction down from 21% in 2017 to only 8% in 2018. At Bloomberg, Karl W. Smith suggests the deduction should be eliminated entirely. He writes: After 1986, when Congress eliminated the deductibility of interest on personal loans and increased the … [Read more...]
Pensions, Unsurprisingly, Miss Their Mark
I have warned for years that public pensions are overestimating their future returns, and therefore are a giant source of debt for future taxpayers who will be forced to pick up the deficit. At the end of the fiscal year in June, median public pensions had missed their expected returns by 1.1 percentage points. Bloomberg's Martin Z. Braun reports: U.S. public pensions posted their weakest performance in three years, falling a percentage point short of their investment targets, and the prospect of rock-bottom interest rates and a trade-war induced recession could put a greater strain on … [Read more...]
Automation is Making Markets more Volatile
Analysts say using computers to automate the selling of stocks in volatile markets is making them even more volatile reports Richard Henderson in the Financial Times. He writes: So-called “volatility-targeting” funds that manage about $400bn in assets have bought up stocks this year as markets have calmed since markets’ dramatic end to 2018. But the renewed turmoil means they were pegged to sell $50bn by the end of Wednesday, according to Wells Fargo estimates. “When volatility jumps, systematic funds rebalance portfolios away from risky assets like equities,” said Pravit Chintawongvanich, … [Read more...]
Chinese Lending Slumps on Low Demand
In a sign that the trade war is hurting Chinese business, lending in July fell on weak demand. Grace Zhu reports in The Wall Street Journal: Lending by Chinese financial institutions slumped in July on weakening demand, signaling further economic headwinds from trade tensions with the U.S. and potentially paving the way for more stimulus efforts by Beijing’s policy makers. Chinese banks issued 1.06 trillion yuan ($150.2 billion) of new yuan loans in July, down from 1.66 trillion yuan in June, the People’s Bank of China said on Monday—lower than the median forecast of 1.25 trillion yuan by … [Read more...]
Retirees Still Cannot Afford a Walloping
With securities markets in a heightened state of volatility, it’s a great time to ask yourself how exposed your portfolio is to risk. Most investors, if asked, would be able to provide little detail about the risks to their portfolio. If you find yourself unable to answer, that’s ok. It’s Not Too Late, Yet Now is the time to begin assessing the risk in your investment portfolio. If your holdings are not balanced to help you achieve your goals, you should begin shifting them as soon as possible, because, as I wrote in April 2017, retirees cannot afford a walloping. Retirees Cannot Afford a … [Read more...]
This Money Market Fund is Paying 47 Times More than its Competition
Fidelity investments may be sparking a war among money market funds by offering a 1.91% yield on money in new brokerage and retirement accounts. That's 47 times higher than Fidelity competitor, TD Ameritrade, 10 times higher than Charles Schwab and 27 times higher the E*Trade. Vicky Ge Huang reports on Fidelity's move at AdvisorHub, writing: “I am not surprised to hear that Fidelity is offering better interest rates,” said Greg O’Gara, senior wealth management analyst at Aite Group. “They continue to try to reach out to their client base and prospects by offering superior product alternatives … [Read more...]
Who’s Really Moving the Market?
After a recent spate of losses in stock markets, a wave of buying began, but it wasn't retail investors stepping in to take advantage of lower prices. Instead, the publicly traded companies themselves were propping up markets by buying back shares. Bloomberg's Lu Wang reports: As the S&P 500 slumped 6% over six days through Monday, companies boosted share buybacks to almost $10 billion a day from $3 billion previously, the firm [JPMorgan Chase & Co.] estimates. With stocks sinking and bonds rallying, the big gap in performance spurred a rotation to equities among funds that need to go … [Read more...]
Luxury Buyers Race to Beat New NYC Taxes
As though New Yorkers weren't taxed enough already, New York City has imposed a new set of transfer taxes on properties selling for $2 million or more. Buyers raced to close their real estate deals to beat the taxes which could be up to 3.15% on deals. The number of luxury deals closed in June was record-breaking. Over $4.8 billion worth of property changed hands. The WSJ's Josh Barbanel reports: As the deadline to beat the tax increase neared, the buying frenzy only intensified. Of the 673 June transactions of at least $2 million, 351 closed in the final seven days. That week alone accounted … [Read more...]
Post-Financial Crisis Regulation Could Worsen the Next Crisis
At the Financial Times, Amin Rajan explains that a lack of liquidity, which was strangled by post-2008 Financial Crisis regulation, could deepen any future financial crisis. Put simply, traditional market makers for fixed-income products cannot now warehouse risk because of the effect of the regulation to enhance global financial resilience introduced after the 2008 crisis. This is best shown by US investment grade credit. It grew by 43 per cent between 2007 and 2018, while dealer inventories were just 6 per cent of what they were in 2007, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. The new … [Read more...]