The $2 Trillion Hole – Barron’s
“Some 80% of these public employees are beneficiaries of defined-benefit plans under which monthly pension payments are guaranteed, no matter how stocks and other volatile assets backing the retirement plans perform. In contrast, most of the taxpayers footing the bill for these public-employee benefits (participants’ contributions to these plans are typically modest) have been pushed by their employers into far less munificent defined-contribution plans and suffered the additional indignity of seeing their 401(k) accounts shrivel in the recent bear market in stocks.”
“THE PROSPECTS ARE BLEAK for many state and local governments as a result of all this. According to a survey last month by the Pew Center on the States, a nonpartisan research group, eight states — Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Rhode Island and West Virginia — lack funding for more than a third of their pension liabilities. Thirteen others are less than 80% funded.”
“MORE DEBT DEFAULTS and bankruptcy filings probably lie ahead, unsettling the $2.7 trillion municipal-bond market. The possibility of taxpayer revolts and likely insolvencies has shaken some investors’ confidence in general-obligation bonds — those backed by the “full faith and credit” of the states or localities.”
“Says Todd Zywicki, a law professor at George Mason University: “In many ways, some of our states are like General Motors before its bankruptcy, suffering from falling revenue, borrowing money to cover operating expenses and operating under crushing legacy health and pension liabilities. It’s entirely possible, given the gigantic size of the pension liabilities, that some states might do what was once the unthinkable at GM and default.””
Business Sours on China – WSJ
“I am pro-China and I am in favor of doing business in China, but I have some serious concerns about what has been happening in the last year,” says Fraser Mendel, an attorney with U.S. law firm Schwabe, Williamson & Wyatt.
“Many foreign executives say they see an upsurge in economic nationalism, accelerated by China’s world-beating performance during the recession and a new disdain for Western economic management.”
“Foreign investors have long complained of China’s haphazard legal system and regulation. These were mere annoyances when China was an emerging market. Today, the huge Chinese market is fundamental to the health of large Western multinationals. Lose here, say Western executives, and multinationals are weakened globally.”
Jeremy Jones, CFA
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