After a turbulent 2025, the global coffee market is showing signs of balance as rising export volumes from regions outside Brazil—such as Asia & Oceania, Africa, and Mexico/Central America—offset Brazilian export declines.
Improved weather conditions are supporting Brazil’s 2026/27 crop outlook, potentially increasing supply later in the year, according to Judy Ganes of STiR.
Logistics routes are also gradually stabilizing after disruptions, which could help rebuild stocks over time. However, challenges such as tight certified inventories and lingering transit issues may keep the market volatile before fully normalizing. Ganes writes:
The coffee market is in transition, with some relief expected from the supply tightening that has gripped the industry in recent seasons as the next Brazilian harvest becomes available later in the year. […]
Although Brazilian shipments have slowed considerably, those from other origins are increasing. Asia and Oceania’s exports are up 38%, Africa’s increased by 13.3%, and Mexico and Central America rose 81.3%, from 0.45 million bags in December 2024 to 0.82 million bags in December 2025. South America was the only region where exports declined, down 15% to 4.65 million bags in December 2025 from 5.47 million bags in December 2024. The cumulative total of non-Brazilian exports has more than offset the decline from the leading producer. Focusing on Brazil alone provides a skewed or incomplete market narrative. […]
It would be disastrous for the entire supply chain if the coffee market were to become a victim of high prices, as the cocoa market has been. […]
The Brazilian 2026/27 crop is now developing under much better conditions than the prior two years. Temperatures have moderated, so there is no additional stress from above-average heat that harms bean sizing and quality — a problem that was evident during processing in the past two harvests. Abundant rainfall and cooler temperatures should lead to more uniform production […]
There has been an increase in passage through various straits to the Suez Canal over the past several months, with no Houthi threats. […]
The total volume remains subdued, down 60% from the pre-diversion passage. Geopolitical risks remain, and full normalization could take all year and even into 2027, but reduced cargo afloat could help rebuild European stocks over time. Freight rates have already begun to decline, indicating that more carriers are likely to return to shorter routes and realign trade flows. This could also widen the price arbitrage between arabica and robusta if the robusta market softens more rapidly. In the meantime, the arbitrage is narrowing with arabica prices falling while robusta prices are holding steadier.
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