The USDA’s January 2026 WASDE Report projects mixed trends across US and global agricultural markets. US wheat and corn production are higher, boosting ending stocks, while rice supplies fall and ending stocks decline. Soybean, canola, and sunflowerseed production rise, supporting higher crush and ending stocks, with global soybean production also up, led by Brazil and the US Sugar production in the US increases slightly, while Mexican output rises, but exports to the US remain limited.
Livestock forecasts show higher beef and pork production, mixed poultry trends, and increased milk output for 2026, with price adjustments reflecting market conditions. US cotton production and ending stocks decline, raising farm prices, and global cotton stocks fall due to lower production and higher consumption.
Overall, the report indicates robust US crop and livestock output, shifting global supply dynamics, and moderate price changes across key commodities. The USDA writes:
WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 4 million bushels on stock revisions in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is reduced 20 million bushels to 100 million based on smaller-than-expected first quarter disappearance and residual indicated in the same report. Seed use is lowered 1 million bushels to 61 million, partly based on the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report.
Exports are unchanged at 900 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class changes.
Projected ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the
previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90.COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, higher feed and residual use, reduced food, seed, and industrial use, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million-acre rise in harvested area. Since the July 2025 WASDE, harvested area has surged 4.5 million acres. Notably, the record crop in 2025 exceeds the prior high set in 2023 by 1.7 billion bushels or over 40 million tons.
Total corn use is raised 90 million bushels to 16.4 billion. Feed and residual use is up 100 million bushels to 6.2 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September–November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. Food, seed, and industrial use is down slightly, reflecting reductions in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and high fructose corn syrup. With supply rising more than use, corn stocks are boosted 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast up 14.8 million tons to 1.591 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, virtually unchanged trade, and higher ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with an increase for China, where production is raised to a record 301.2 million tons based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are higher, mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 290.9 million tons, are raised 11.8 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic and residual use, lower exports, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are lowered on decreased imports and less production. The NASS Crop Production 2026 Summary estimated all rice production at 206.7 million cwt, down 0.6 million from the previous estimate as a lower harvested area more than offsets a higher yield. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,544 pounds per acre, up 38 pounds from the prior estimate.
All rice imports are reduced 1.0 million cwt to 48.7 million, all in long-grain, as the pace to date is behind last year’s record. All rice domestic use and residual is raised 5.0 million cwt to a record 171.0 million cwt (all long-grain) based on the NASS Rice Stocks report issued January 12. All rice exports are lowered 3.0 million cwt to 89.0 million, with the reduction entirely in long-grain due to a weak pace of sales and shipments to Western Hemisphere markets. Projected ending stocks are reduced 3.6 million cwt to 49.3 million, down 9 percent from last year. The season-average farm price (SAFP) for all rice is $11.80 per cwt, up $0.20, due to a higher Other States (Southern) medium- and short-grain SAFP forecast.
The 2025/26 global outlook is for higher supplies, fractionally greater consumption, slightly higher trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised 1.7 million tons to 732.4 million, mostly due to higher beginning stocks for China and larger production for China and Japan. World 2025/26 consumption is modestly higher at 542.0 million tons, up 0.1 million. Global 2025/26 trade is raised 0.3 million tons to 63.5 million as higher exports for China more than offset reductions for Pakistan and the United States. Projected world ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 190.3 million, mostly on higher stocks for China, Japan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2025/26 is estimated at 126.2 million tons, up 0.5 million from the previous report. Higher soybean, canola, and sunflowerseed crops are partly offset by lower cottonseed and peanuts. U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, up 9 million, led by increases for Kansas, Kentucky, and Minnesota. Harvested area is estimated at 80.4 million acres, up 0.1 million. Yield is unchanged from last month at 53.0 bushels per acre.
U.S. soybean supply for 2025/26 is raised 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates are revised based on early-season data. Soybean oil used for biofuel is lowered 0.7 billion pounds to 14.8 billion on lower-than-expected use to date and strong use of tallow as a feedstock in recent months.
U.S. soybean exports are revised 60 million bushels lower to 1.575 billion on higher production and exports for Brazil. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 60 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, down 30 cents. The soybean meal price is forecast at $295 per short ton, down $5, and the soybean oil price remains unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
Foreign 2025/26 oilseed production is raised 2.4 million tons mainly on higher soybean production, partly offset by lower cottonseed and rapeseed output. For sunflowerseed, higher production for Argentina is offset by lower production for Russia. Rapeseed production is also lowered for Russia.
The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes higher production, increased crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Global soybean production is increased 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million, reflecting higher crops for Brazil and the U.S. but lower output for China. Brazil soybean production is raised 3.0 million tons to 178.0 million on beneficial weather conditions in the Center West during the peak of the growing season. Positive early-season conditions and consistent rainfall in southern Brazil also bolster yield prospects.
Soybean crush and soybean meal exports are raised for Brazil and the U.S., paired with higher soybean meal imports for the EU. EU soybean crush and soybean imports are lowered on higher imported soybean meal supplies. Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are reduced 0.1 million tons to 187.6 million as higher exports for Brazil are offset by lower U.S. shipments. Global ending stocks are increased 2.0 million tons to 124.4 million, mainly on higher stocks for the U.S. and Brazil.
SUGAR: The U.S. sugar supply is projected to increase marginally as increases in production more than offset a reduction in imports. Sugar production is projected at 9.381 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Based on processor forecasts in the January Sweetener Market Data (SMD), cane sugar in Louisiana is projected at 2.197 million STRV (up 35,377 over December), and Florida is unchanged at 2.082 million STRV. Based on January NASS forecasts of sugarbeet production, beet sugar production is projected at 5.102 million STRV, a small increase of 3,648. Beet pile shrink is unchanged at 8.66 percent.
Imports are reduced by 33,591 STRV to 2.255 million, mostly on reduced molasses imports. U.S. sugar use is decreased by 50,000 STRV on lower shipments to Mexico. Ending stocks are projected at 1.922 million STRV, with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.75 percent, up from 15.24 last month.
Mexico sugar production is projected at 5.047 million metric tons (MT), up 5.8 percent from last year but down 47,000 MT from last month. Increased rainfall and area recovery boosted production, though severe October flooding caused harvest delays. Deliveries are increased to 4.320 million MT on higher domestic availability, while exports to the U.S. are constrained to 187,973 MT due to high U.S. sugar inventories.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2025 red meat and poultry production forecast is raised as higher pork and beef output is partly offset by lower poultry production. Egg production is lowered for 2025 based on flock data. For 2026, beef production is raised on heavier dressed weights. Pork production is raised based on higher pig crops and farrowing intentions. Broiler and turkey production are raised, while egg production is lowered for the first two quarters.
Beef imports for 2025 are raised; exports are reduced. Pork exports are adjusted based on production and competitiveness. Prices are adjusted for cattle, hogs, turkeys, and eggs, reflecting supply and demand trends. Milk production is unchanged for 2025 and increased for 2026. Dairy import and export forecasts are adjusted, with Class III and IV prices updated, and all milk prices set at $21.15 per cwt for 2025 and $18.25 per cwt for 2026.
COTTON: The 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows lower production and ending stocks. Production is reduced over 2 percent to 13.9 million bales due to lower yields in the Delta and larger harvested area in the Southwest. Ending stocks are down 7 percent to 4.2 million bales, raising the season-average farm price to 61 cents per pound.
The global balance sheet shows lower production, higher consumption, lower ending stocks, and largely unchanged trade. China’s crop is raised by 1 million bales, offset by reductions in India, the U.S., Argentina, and Turkey, lowering world production by 350,000 bales. Global ending stocks are revised downward 1.5 million bales, reducing the stocks-to-use ratio below 63 percent.
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