Jules Sery, Transport Modeller, and Jean-Baptiste Le Marois, Energy Innovation Programme Officer of the International Energy Agency, report that global electric car sales are expected to reach 17 million in 2024, but growth has been uneven across markets. High upfront costs remain a barrier, though prices are dropping, particularly in China. Automakers are releasing more affordable models, and increased competition and policy support could drive further price reductions, accelerating mass adoption. They write:
The transition to electric mobility continues to advance rapidly, reshaping global energy and auto markets. Electric car sales in 2024 are anticipated to be robust, with around 17 million units sold over the course of the year. More than one in five cars sold worldwide this year is expected to be electric.
Growth has been uneven across markets. Electric car sales in countries like Australia, Brazil, Canada, China and Indonesia were strong, while in Germany, Italy, Japan and Korea, they declined during the first three quarters of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. Several carmakers are adjusting their electrification plans as they grapple with these complex market dynamics. For example, Volvo recently revised its 100% fully electric 2030 target to include up to 10% hybrid sales, with the objective of achieving higher profitability by 2026. Meanwhile, Ford cancelled plans to launch a new electric SUV and delayed its next electric truck, pointing to profitability concerns and competitive pressure. Recent reporting suggests that other carmakers, such as Toyota, Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis, may be revisiting near-term electric car sales forecasts.
Global momentum behind electric cars remains powerful in the medium term. Under today’s policy settings, electric cars are expected to account for around 45% of car sales in 2030 and 55% in 2035. However, a crucial factor in the pace of growth across markets will be whether electric cars become more affordable. […]
In 2023, about 60% of electric cars sold in China were already priced below their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts, thanks to over a decade of policy support, increasing competition and falling battery prices. Due to their growing accessibility, nearly 95% of small cars sold in the country in the first half of 2024 were electric. Electric models are set to account for one in two total car sales in China this year. […]
As upfront prices come down, second-hand electric cars are also getting cheaper. As of mid-2024, the average price of used electric cars was above USD 33 000 in the United States, a year-on-year decline of more than 20%. For comparison, the average price of used ICE cars fell by just 7% to USD 27 000. […]
However, recent tariffs and countervailing duties on electric car imports from China, adopted by countries and regions including Canada, the European Union, Türkiye and the United States, could limit the availability of affordable models in the short term. While these measures aim to support local manufacturing and level the playing field with Chinese manufacturers suspected of benefiting from unfair subsidies, they might also reduce the competitive pressure on domestic automakers to release more affordable electric models in the medium term.
Price is not the only factor that affects electric car uptake. Others, such as range and the availability of charging infrastructure, remain important. Yet if market competition and policy support succeed in bringing electric car prices on par with ICE ones in more countries, it could unlock a new leg of growth, putting mass-market adoption within reach.
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