The latest US Short-Term Energy Outlook projects crude oil production to average 13.5 million barrels per day in 2026, about 100,000 barrels per day less than in 2025, marking the first decline after four years of growth. Output is rising through 2025 mainly due to gains in the Permian Basin, but modest increases in Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Permian in 2026 will be outweighed by declines elsewhere. The outlook also forecasts falling oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate expected to average $65 per barrel in 2025 and $51 in 2026, down from $77 in 2024. The EIA writes:
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In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025.
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This forecast decline in production follows four years of rising crude oil output.
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Production increased by 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and by 0.4 million b/d in 2025, mostly because of increased output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.
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In 2026, we forecast modest production increases in Alaska, the Federal Gulf of America, and the Permian will be offset by declines in other parts of the United States.
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We forecast that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2025 and $51/b in 2026, both lower than the 2024 average of $77/b.
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