The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Alaska’s crude oil output to rise to 477,000 barrels per day in 2026—the highest since 2018—driven by major new production on the North Slope. After decades of decline, Alaska is set for a 13% increase in 2026, its largest annual jump since the 1980s, according to the US Energy Information Administration. ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project, which began producing in late 2024, and the Pikka Phase 1 project from Santos and Repsol, expected online in early 2026, account for the growth. These wells are significantly more productive than most existing Alaskan wells, and updated forecasts reflect faster-than-expected ramp-up and strong well performance. The EIA writes:
- In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast crude oil produced from Alaska will reach 477,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, the most since 2018.
- After decades of decline, we expect a 13% (55,000 b/d) increase in Alaska oil production, the largest annual increase since the 1980s.
- The recent growth is attributable to two projects on Alaska’s North Slope:
- The Nuna project, owned by ConocoPhillips, started production in December 2024 and is expected to produce 20,000 b/d at its peak. In August 2025, the project produced 7,000 b/d, offsetting existing production declines.
- The Pikka Phase 1 project, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, is expected to start production during the first quarter of 2026 and reach peak production of 80,000 b/d by mid-2026, nearly 20% of total Alaska oil production in 2025.
- The wells from these new projects outperform most Alaskan wells. Based on recent production records from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, these wells produce about 480 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) on average, whereas 78% of Alaskan wells produced less than 400 BOE/d in 2023.
- Our latest forecast for 2026 production—an increase from our initial forecast—reflects Santos’s expectations for an accelerated ramp-up to peak production for the Pikka Phase 1 project and recent well tests demonstrating high productivity.
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