US real GDP grew 0.7% in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in Q3, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The slowdown reflected decreases in government spending and exports and slower consumer spending, partially offset by stronger investment.
For all of 2025, real GDP increased 2.1%, driven mainly by consumer spending and investment. Prices also rose, with the gross domestic purchases index up 2.6% and the PCE price index up 2.6% (2.8% excluding food and energy). The BEA writes:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.
The second report for the fourth quarter of 2025, originally scheduled for February 26, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Real GDP was revised down 0.7 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Imports decreased less than previously estimated. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below.
Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment. The decrease in imports was smaller than in the previous quarter.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, revised down 0.5 percentage point from the previous estimate.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter, revised up 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.9 percent, the same as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, also the same as previously estimated. (Refer to “Technical Notes” below for information on how BEA imputed missing U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) October prices.)
Real GDP and Related Measures
[Percent Change (SAAR) from 2025 Q3 to Q4]
Advance estimate
Second Estimate
Real GDP
1.4
0.7
Current-dollar GDP
5.1
4.5
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers
2.4
1.9
Gross domestic purchases price index
3.7
3.8
PCE price index
2.9
2.9
PCE price index excluding food and energy
2.7
2.7
GDP for 2025
Real GDP increased 2.1 percent in 2025 (from the 2024 annual level to the 2025 annual level), revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The increase in real GDP in 2025 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in 2025, the same as previously estimated. The PCE price index also increased 2.6 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8 percent, both the same as previously estimated.
