Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

Disclosure

  • About Us
    • Contributors
    • Archives
    • Dick Young’s Safe America
    • The Final Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report
    • You’ve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What?
    • Dick Young’s Research Key: Anecdotal Evidence Gathering
    • Crisis at Vanguard
  • Investment Analysis
    • Bonds
    • Currencies and Gold
    • Dividend Investing
    • ETFs & Funds
    • Investment Strategy
    • Retirement Investing
    • Stocks
    • The Efficient Frontier
  • Investment Counsel
  • Retirement Compounders®
  • Free Email Signup

How Is the Economy?

December 28, 2022 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Originally posted December 5, 2022.

The ISM Manufacturing index fell into contraction territory in November for the first time since 2020. The ISM index is a monthly survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The index measures the change in manufacturing activity from month to month. Activity in housing, a large cyclical sector of the economy, has also turned down, and homebuilder sentiment is at recessionary levels. We are also seeing some weakness in advertising markets and softness in other sectors of the economy.

The leading economic indicators which seek to provide an early warning sign of recession have a foul look. On a year-to-year change basis, the leaders are clearly pointing to recession.

Based on the unrevised data we have in hand, the odds likely favor recession in the coming 6-12 months, but that is not yet a guarantee. What’s more, recession means little without considering severity.

The jobs market remains solid, with wage growth strong, unemployment near historic lows, and new job creation far in excess of the number of jobs needed to keep up with population growth. There are also still trillions in excess savings that consumers can tap into in order to soften the blow of an economic downturn.

Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy. A solid jobs market and healthy consumer balance sheets may mean that the severity of recession, should one be realized, may be on the mild side.

Share this:

  • Email
  • Twitter
  • Facebook

You Might Also Like:

  • Consumer Confidence Soars as Economy Reopens
  • Investing During a Recession
  • An Economic Recovery Like No Other
  • Author
  • Recent Posts
Jeremy Jones, CFA
Jeremy Jones, CFA, CFP® is the Director of Research at Young Research & Publishing Inc., and the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. CNBC has ranked Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. as one of the Top 100 Financial Advisors in the nation (2019-2022) Disclosure. Jeremy is also a contributing editor of youngresearch.com.
Latest posts by Jeremy Jones, CFA (see all)
  • The Cloud Slowdown Is Hurting Amazon the Most - February 8, 2023
  • Real Estate “Power Buyers” Suffering Glut of Inventory - February 7, 2023
  • AI SEARCH WAR BEGINS: Google and Microsoft Join AI Battle - February 6, 2023

Search Young Research

Most Popular

  • You Aren't Getting These Yields from Your Bank Account
  • Tom Brady Retires, Again. Should You?
  • Suddenly, Holding Cash Looks Good Again to Many
  • What Your Survival Guy Invested in Today
  • Do You Trust This Rally?
  • Vanguard Wellesley (VWINX) vs. Wellington (VWELX): Which Fund is Best?
  • The Power of a Compound Interest Table
  • What Happens if the "Fed Put" Is Over for Good?
  • Warren Miller: If You Don’t Do It This Year, You’ll Be…
  • Early Advice from Her Dad on Tipping at Charlie Trotter’s

Don’t Miss

Default Risk Among the Many Concerns with Annuities

Risk and Reward: An Efficient Frontier

How to be a Billionaire: Proven Strategies from the Titans of Wealth

Could this Be the Vanguard GNMA Winning Edge?

Cryptocosm and Life After Google

Warning: Avoid Mutual Fund Year End Distributions

Is Gold a Good Long-term Investment?

How to Invest in Gold

Vanguard Wellington (VWELX): The Original Balanced Fund

What is the Best Gold ETF for Investing and Trading?

Procter & Gamble (PG) Stock: The Only True Dividend King

The Dividend King of the North

You’ll Love This if You’re Dreaming of an Active Retirement Life

RSS The Latest at Richardcyoung.com

  • Big Hearted, Idealistic, Daring…
  • Yes, Your Children Are Listening to You
  • BEN CARSON: How Is Biden’s Speech Creating Unity?
  • Biden’s State of the Union Address Receives Rough Reception
  • Can a Capital Injection Save Bed Bath & Beyond?
  • You Aren’t Getting These Yields from Your Bank Account
  • Democrats’ Widening Schism
  • Jimmy Buffett Playing Key West
  • Whatever You Knew, Dave Hammer Knew More
  • Dragon Tours Open for Business

RSS The Latest at Yoursurvivalguy.com

  • Yes, Your Children Are Listening to You
  • You Aren’t Getting These Yields from Your Bank Account
  • Bidenflation Has Eaten Up Americans’ Pandemic Savings
  • Dragon Tours Open for Business
  • What Your Survival Guy Invested in Today
  • You Invest, They Win: FTX Edition
  • Your Retirement Life: Adventure Awaits
  • Zumwalt-Class Guided Missile Destroyers to Get Hypersonic Weapons
  • Early Advice from Her Dad on Tipping at Charlie Trotter’s
  • Treasury Bonds Ready to Rock and Roll

About Us

  • About Young Research
  • Archives
  • Contributors

Our Partners

  • Richard C. Young & Co.
  • Richardcyoung.com

Copyright © 2023 | Terms & Conditions

 

Loading Comments...
 

    loading Cancel
    Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
    Email check failed, please try again
    Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.