The global economy is proving resilient in 2026, with Wood Mackenzie raising its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% and expecting 3.0% growth in 2027. The outlook is being supported by energy supply adjustments and a strong AI investment boom, particularly in the U.S. and Asia.
But the outlook hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening to normal energy transit. A prolonged disruption could exhaust strategic reserves, drive energy prices and inflation higher, trigger tighter monetary policy, and push major economies into recession.
The biggest opportunities are concentrated in AI-linked Asian economies and the U.S., while Europe lags and parts of the Middle East face contraction. Longer term, geopolitical fragmentation, supply-chain shifts and energy-security concerns are expected to reshape global trade, investment and commodity demand.
