The upstream oil and gas sector is set for strong momentum in 2026, building on a solid 2025, when high-impact wildcat wells saw a 38% success rate and total discovered volumes rose 53% to 2.3 billion boe, according to Rystad Energy. High-impact exploration, particularly in ultra-deepwater and frontier regions, will drive growth, with Africa expected to lead global activity, accounting for roughly 40% of planned wells. Asia follows with eight planned wells, led by Indonesia, India, and Malaysia, while North America continues to see limited upside, with discoveries concentrated in mature basins such as the US Gulf of America. The trend reflects a shift toward capital-intensive, high-reward plays in frontier areas as conventional opportunities decline, with Africa and select ultra-deepwater regions offering the greatest potential for commercially meaningful, long-life discoveries. They write:
The upstream sector is set to carry strong momentum into 2026, with high-impact wildcat drilling activity expected to remain elevated following a solid 2025. Last year, the success rate for high-impact wildcat wells rose to 38% from 23% in 2024, while total discovered volumes increased by 53% year on year to around 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), according to Rystad Energy’s research and analysis.
Wells are designated as high-impact based on a variety of factors: the size of the potential resources, whether they could open new hydrocarbon plays in frontier or emerging basins, and their significance to the operator. Such activity in 2026 is expected to drive exploration momentum higher in specific basins and countries, with 42 such wells identified globally. Africa is set to continue leading global activity, accounting for around 40% of planned high-impact exploration wells, driven largely along the Atlantic margin, with exploration expected to focus on the Orange Basin in Southern Africa and the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa, reinforcing the region’s role in global high-impact drilling.
Rystad Energy’s high-impact well outlook for 2026 points to a clear concentration in ultra-deepwater and frontier exploration. […]
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