China’s Communist Party is set to unveil its 2026–2030 five-year plan during a key plenum this month, prioritizing high-tech manufacturing to boost industrial strength amid rising US tensions, according to Reuters. While policymakers are expected to promote household consumption and social welfare, analysts note that China faces a tough balancing act: state resources still heavily favor production over demand-side reforms. Despite past pledges to grow consumption, deflation, weak job growth, and a struggling property sector persist. The plan is likely to reaffirm China’s focus on strategic technologies while offering only modest steps to improve social safety nets, reflecting a continued emphasis on industrial power over structural economic rebalancing. They write:
China’s Communist Party meets this month to map a five-year vision that prioritises high-tech manufacturing in its quest to upgrade its sprawling industries and project global power as its rivalry with the U.S. intensifies, analysts say.
Known as a plenum, the meeting is also likely to pledge strong measures to lift household consumption and curb deep, historical supply-demand imbalances that threaten long-term growth in the world’s second-largest economy. […]
The intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, underlined by U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed threats of triple-digit tariffs last week, has complicated matters for policymakers in Beijing, analysts say. […]
China now leads in industries such as electric vehicles, solar or wind and is leveraging its dominance of rare earths production with export controls before potential trade talks between Trump and Xi later in October.
Apart from a few high-end sectors, such as aircraft or advanced semiconductors, its supply chains are largely domestic. With the West aiming to re-industrialise and re-arm after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and amid growing tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the stakes are too high for Beijing to even contemplate slowing down on that front. […]
Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, expects the five-year plan to “focus more on people’s livelihood, including social security, healthcare systems, and possibly more support and protection for low-income groups.” […]
“In a now very typical Marxist country,” Wang said, “it’s all about production.”
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