The 2012 Stock-Market Outlook
Barron’s released its 2012 stock-market outlook this weekend. In the issue, Barron’s surveyed 10 Wall Street strategists on the outlook for the U.S. stock market. Most of the strategists are the heads of equity departments at Wall Street’s biggest banks. What are the Street’s equity strategists... Read the full story
Not Your Father’s Stock Market
This is not your father’s stock market. Over the last 10 years, the structure of the U.S. equity market has changed drastically. Gone are the days when the NYSE and its specialists dominated stock market trading. Today, as many as 50 different venues in the U.S. trade equities. Now, almost all stock... Read the full story
Diverging Performance
The S&P 500 hit a cyclical bull market high on April 29 of this year. During a volatile session on Tuesday, the index dipped into official bear market territory (a drop of more than 20% from a recent high), but a stunning final hour rally of more than 4% helped the index narrowly escape the official... Read the full story
Welcome to the Bear Market
On a closing basis, the S&P 500 hasn’t dropped the necessary 20% to be considered an official bear market, but for all intents and purposes U.S. stocks are in a bear market. If you measure the index on an intra-day basis, the peak to trough decline was 21.58% at today’s low. And if not for a... Read the full story
Have Stocks Bottomed?
After busting through its previous support level of 1,200, the S&P 500 dropped to an intraday low of 1,100 in early August. As we pointed out in our last technical analysis update, longer-term charts show that stocks have significant support in the 1,100-1,150 range. That support level has been confirmed... Read the full story
A Historic Week
Even with the relatively calm day in the markets on Friday, this past week has been one of the most volatile on record. Only during the 2008 financial crisis, the 1987 stock market crash, and the Great Depression have stock prices been as volatile as they were this past week. Read More →
Worst 5 Bear Markets
Developed world equity markets have been hammered in recent weeks. In U.S. dollar terms, many have entered bear market territory—defined as a peak-to-trough decline of at least 20%. We have compiled a slideshow of the 5 MSCI developed world stock market indices with the biggest bear market losses.... Read the full story
S&P 500 Technical Analysis Update
The S&P 500 has now clearly carved out the head-and-shoulders top formation I wrote about in Young Research’s last two technical analysis updates. The price action in the market has a real weak look. Stocks blew threw their widely followed 200-day moving average and headed straight to their next... Read the full story
Rail Stock Divergence
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) put out its weekly rail traffic report today. For the week ending July 16, total carloads fell 0.3% compared to the same week last year. The AAR’s weekly rail traffic data is famously noisy. To get a better read on the underlying trend in rail traffic, it... Read the full story
S&P 500 Technical Analysis Update
Stocks are up big today on a blowout ADP employment report. Economists were looking for private sector job gains of 70,000 in June. The actual number came in at 157,000—more than double expectations. The strong ADP report comes on the back of better than expected manufacturing data last week. Two better... Read the full story
