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Archives for July 2016

Boomer Retirements Pull Down Productivity

July 29, 2016 By E.J. Smith

Think about the concept of retirement for a minute. A person works their entire life, gains massive amounts of valuable experience, becomes extremely productive, and then checks out at the peak of their career. Odd is it not? But given expected life spans, and what it costs to save for the Golden Years, this is how it's done. The problem today is, the Baby Boomer generation is such a big, productive part of the economy, that as these older workers retire, they leave a massive skills and productivity gap in their wake. Research from RAND Corp. says Boomer retirements will even lower GDP … [Read more...]

Worthy Reads: GDP Expands at Disappointing 1.2%

July 29, 2016 By Young Research

GDP Expands at Disappointing 1.2% (WSJ) Point of no return for quantitative easing is getting closer (MarketWatch) Modest Move Signals Possible Retreat at BOJ (WSJ) Here's a Reason Baby Boomers Will Curb U.S. Growth this Decade (Bloomberg) Intraday dynamics of euro area sovereign credit risk contagion (BIS) … [Read more...]

Millennial Housing Bust

July 28, 2016 By E.J. Smith

I have written many times here about my initial foray into real estate investing. In my three part series Working Millennials: Rent or Buy Real Estate? (read Part I, Part II and Part III), I encouraged young people to "buy a multi-family type property.  It can be a two-family, four-family, you can live in the basement of a brownstone. It doesn’t matter as long as you get in the game. You will unlock the creativity I know you possess. You will beat inertia—a most horrible foe." I want young people to become owners. Ownership is key to the idea of becoming a long-term investor. But of course … [Read more...]

Worthy Reads: Why gold prices spiked after the Fed decision

July 28, 2016 By Young Research

Why gold prices spiked after the Fed decision (MarketWatch) Aramco Buyer Beware: The Risky Track Record of Government Oil (WSJ) Greenspan Is ‘Nervous’ That Bond Prices Are Too High (Bloomberg) IRA, 401(k), Roth: What to Consider When Choosing – At A Glance (WSJ) The point of no return for quantitative easing is getting closer (MarketWatch) … [Read more...]

Gasoline vs. Rigs: Which Signal is Right?

July 27, 2016 By Young Research

Gasoline stocks in the U.S. are in uncharted territory, at all time highs for this point in the year. Simultaneously, the rig count has climbed off its all-time lows of 404 rigs in operation to 462. There are really three possibilities, either 1) gasoline is in a glut and prices will fall, 2) drillers are over enthusiastic about crude price stabilization and will end up shutting down rigs, again, or 3) in the face of low oil prices, U.S. producers have become efficient enough to displace higher cost production elsewhere. … [Read more...]

Worthy Reads: Dollar Traders Call Fed’s Bluff

July 27, 2016 By Young Research

Dollar Traders Call Fed’s Bluff (WSJ) Cowen: Maybe Negative Yields Are a Sign of Prosperity (Bloomberg) The Oil Price Recovery Is Drowning in Gasoline (WSJ) Housing prices, mortgage interest rates and the rising share of capital income in the United States (BIS) Top-paid CEOs aren't very good at their jobs (Money) … [Read more...]

Silver Up 44% in First Half: Investment Demand Booms

July 27, 2016 By E.J. Smith

Investment demand and sales of silver coins have surged in 2016. The Silver Institute notes that in the first half of 2016, the price of silver has gained 44%. Blanchard writes: Investment demand for silver has been increasing on almost every front. ETF holdings hit a record high of more than 662 million ounces, while net longs in the futures and options markets also are at all-time levels. And in the physical market, coin sales are booming again in 2016, up 29% for the first quarter of this year, growing at “at double digit paces in all the major regions” of the world. The only down spot … [Read more...]

Worthy Reads: Older Americans Are Holding On to Their Jobs

July 26, 2016 By Young Research

Fed Doves Won't Be Able to Rule the Roost Forever (Bloomberg) Fed Readies Enforcement Action Against Goldman in Theft of Secrets (WSJ) Older Americans Are Holding On to Their Jobs (Bloomberg) This U.K. bank may become first to charge to hold cash (MarketWatch) U.S. Crude Falls Below $43 on Glut Worries (FoxBusiness) … [Read more...]

States and Cities Struggle under Pension Weight

July 26, 2016 By E.J. Smith

Timothy Martin writes at the Wall Street Journal that public pensions in the United States are about to record their lowest long-term returns ever. I've warned about the threat to pension funds posed by low interest rates time, and time, and time, and time again. Now the chickens are coming home to roost, and public employees, and taxpayers will be the ones who pay the price for sustained low interest rates engineered by the Fed. Martin writes: The drop in 20-year annualized returns is significant because officials who oversee retirements for police officers, firefighters, teachers and … [Read more...]

Pokemon Go, A Cautionary Tale

July 25, 2016 By Young Research

Look at what happened to Nintendo shares when management reminded everyone that the company doesn't own that much of Pokemon Go. Blows a bit of a hole in the semi-strong form efficient market hypothesis doesn't it? … [Read more...]

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