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Archives for April 2021

What’s the Rationale for Subsidizing the Mortgage Market?

April 28, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The Federal Reserve's low interest rates are subsidizing the mortgage market, and creating a bubble in housing. Randall W. Forsyth explains in MarketWatch, writing: When the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday, it ought to consider whether its policies aimed to bolster housing may be having negative side effects. With the market for new and existing homes red hot, the rationale for subsidizing the mortgage market has largely passed. Indeed, the Fed’s policies may be hurting home affordability as much as they’re helping. The Federal Reserve’s … [Read more...]

Despite Disturbing Crash, Tesla Logs Record Earnings

April 28, 2021 By Young Research

Despite the still unsolved crash of a Tesla, the company's earnings hit record highs in the first quarter of 2021. Rebecca Elliott reports for The Wall Street Journal: Tesla Inc. TSLA -4.26% posted a record quarterly profit despite supply disruptions, fueled by rising deliveries and increasingly broad-based demand for electric vehicles. The Silicon Valley car maker has enjoyed booming sales, driven by both its popular Model Y compact sport-utility vehicle and sustained demand in China. The company also has benefited from the wider embrace of plug-in cars as governments across the world … [Read more...]

The Fallout from Archegos Capital Management and More

April 27, 2021 By E.J. Smith

What risks do certain "family" offices pose to outside investors, considering most, if not all, of the money is the "family’s?” Well, as it turns out, quite a bit. The most recent one making headlines is Archegos, where the family office of Bill Hwang burned banks to the tune of $10 billion. The WSJ reports, the losses are felt far and wide, not just at his dinner table. The battering to Wall Street banks from Archegos Capital Management topped $10 billion after UBS Group AG and Nomura Holdings, Inc. reported fresh hits caused by the fund’s collapse. Archegos, the family office of Bill … [Read more...]

UPS Results Show Pandemic Easing is Bringing Back Small Business

April 27, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Small businesses showed that they're still in the game in the first quarter, pushing UPS to surging revenues. The growth in average daily volume for small and midsized U.S. businesses reached an all-time high. Dave Sebastian reports for the Wall Street Journal: United Parcel Service Inc. said its revenue rose in the latest quarter, a period that saw mounting supply-chain woes world-wide, as small and midsize businesses drove gains in the U.S. Businesses faced disruptions in the first three months of the year as the extreme Texas freeze and port backlogs compounded pandemic-driven problems. … [Read more...]

Timeless Wisdom from Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle

April 26, 2021 By E.J. Smith

With few guarantees in the investment world, here’s one: Avoid companies growing their client base through acquisitions. It’s happening all the time, thanks to consolidation within the industry. But bigger isn’t better, especially when it comes to knowing your customers. Legendary investor and Vanguard founder Jack Bogle spoke about this when he was alive, and I’ve never forgotten it. What Bogle was referring to was the relationship between an investor and an advisor. But that sacred bond was muddled when a bigger company acquired a smaller one simply by writing a big check. Bogle understood … [Read more...]

Is the Government Missing, or Ignoring Inflation?

April 26, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

If prices rise, but the government doesn't measure it, does inflation exist? There are major holes in the government's measurement of inflation. Lisa Beilfuss explains in Barron's here: There are economic models, and there is real life. Over the past week alone, the price of corn rose 8% to the highest level since 2013, while soybeans and wheat prices hit their highest points since 2014. The CRB foodstuff index, which includes hogs, butter, and sugar, in addition to grains and other agricultural commodities, is up 15% this year and trading at the highest level since summer 2012. Grocery … [Read more...]

Americans Want to Get Moving Around Again

April 26, 2021 By Young Research

American Express and other card companies are seeing increased interest by Americans in travel and spending on entertainment. Allison Prang reports in The Wall Street Journal: American Express Co. AXP +3.96% is seeing consumer spending start to normalize as Covid-19 vaccinations pick up in the U.S. Spending in travel and entertainment categories rose 40% in March from February and bookings through American Express Travel jumped by 50% in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter, Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Campbell said in an interview Friday. Mr. Campbell said the number of … [Read more...]

You Are Why Serious Investors Join Me

April 23, 2021 By E.J. Smith

Here’s some thoughts as you dive into your weekend. TGIF. The seasonally high traffic on a recent sunny Saturday in Newport, RI suggests it’s going to be a busy summer. Selling ice-cold bottled water from a cooler at Newport’s famed Cliff Walk works as well as selling binoculars at a National Park gift shop. I asked a prospective client how his spouse would handle their portfolio if he got hit by a truck. He said, “Huh, I never thought about that.” Don’t stand too close to the road, I thought. For all you boaters, you know the challenge of leaving or approaching the dock. … [Read more...]

AT&T Prides Itself on Stability of Growth

April 23, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Recently AT&T released its first-quarter earnings report in which it notched more cellphone users, more fiber-optic customers, and more HBO subscribers. The company lauded its "stability" compacted to competitors. Drew FitzGerald reports for The Wall Street Journal: The Dallas company reported 44.2 million domestic HBO and HBO Max subscribers, up from 41.5 million three months earlier, as its media division sought to gain on rivals like Netflix Inc. NFLX -1.10% and Walt Disney Co. That figure included viewers who signed up for the company’s new online streaming video service as well as … [Read more...]

Where Are We With This Stock Market? Well…

April 22, 2021 By E.J. Smith

When legendary Dow Theorist Richard Russell was still alive, he wrote about the three phases of a bull stock market. He’d write to his valued readers that you know you’re in the third phase when everyone’s talking about stocks (or dogecoin, or bitcoin, etc.). The third phase of a bull market is full of FOMOs—buyers with a “fear of missing out” on the next best thing, like lemmings jumping off a cliff. The third phase is crazy, fueled by emotion, with a narrative that goes something like this: It’s different this time. Well, yes, every day is different. And there are plenty of stories telling … [Read more...]

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