June 16, 2009
As an inference reading based futurist, my goal is to target unfolding trends and the catalysts to effect change. Areas of interest include terrorism, politics, currencies, government, world financial markets, and economies. Most immediately, I think the 17% jump in May housing construction in concert with May’s increase in building permits augers well for a saucer-like bottom in housing. Home builders were definitely less confident in June than they were in the spring. Mortgage rates have been rising and there remains a nasty overhang of unsold homes. As such, the U.S. has now entered what I refer to as a worse, but not worser, environment. Ahead is the continued unraveling of commercial real estate (especially malls) and credit card debt.
Due to the ultra-radical agenda of the Obama-fronted progressive movement in the U.S., a destructive wave of interest rate hikes and inflation figures to be breaking news in the 2010 – 2011 time frame. Holders of adjustable rate mortgages, long bonds, and U.S. dollars will be the big losers.