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One of the Best Leading Economic Indicators

June 12, 2009 By Dick Young

June 12, 2009
The stock market is one of the best leading economic indicators. And investment grade U.S. stocks continue in a Bear market. (1) Dow Jones Industrials, down 0.1% (2) Dow Jones Transportations, down 5.6% (3) Dow Jones Utilities, down 7.6%. By contrast many International Indices are soaring (1) Brazil up 42% (2) Canada up 17% (3) Hong Kong up 26% (4) Japan up 11% and (5) Singapore up 32%. Moreover with a 25 p/e (based on 2009 estimates) and only a 3.3% yield the Blue Chip Dow Industrials simply do not offer compelling value. It is true that the speculative NASDAQ index is up 16% YTD and the small stock dominated unweighted Value Line 12%. These gains, unsupported by compelling valuations, register speculators hope and hope is not a strategy. In the meantime, savers scan the financial landscape and do not like what they see. Money market funds yield but 1.3%. T-Bills offer just 3.1% and five-year CDs only 2.6%.

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Dick Young
Richard C. Young is the editor of Young's World Money Forecast, and a contributing editor to both Richardcyoung.com and Youngresearch.com.
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