Here’s what former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said in July 2007 prior to the housing bust and the recession that began later that year:
Overall, the U.S. economy appears likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007 with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate close to the economy’s underlying trend. Such an assessment was made around the time of the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee… The central tendency of the growth forecast… is for real GDP to expand roughly 2.25% to 2.5% this year and 2.5% to 2.75% in 2008. ….The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge up between 4.5% and 4.75% over the balance of this year and about 4.75% percent in 2008.
What’s going on here?