Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

Disclosure

  • About Us
    • Contributors
    • Archives
    • Dick Young’s Safe America
    • The Final Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report
    • You’ve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What?
    • Dick Young’s Research Key: Anecdotal Evidence Gathering
    • Crisis at Vanguard
  • Investment Analysis
    • Bonds
    • Currencies and Gold
    • Dividend Investing
    • ETFs & Funds
    • Investment Strategy
    • Retirement Investing
    • Stocks
    • The Efficient Frontier
  • Investment Counsel
  • Retirement Compounders®
  • Free Email Signup

A Guide to 2010 Investment Returns

January 29, 2010 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

In 2010, the monetary policies of the world’s three largest central banks are likely to play a big role in the performance of global equity markets. The vast majority of the world’s wealth—close to 80%, by some estimates—is concentrated in the U.S., Japan, and the euro area. My chart shows that the GDP-weighted risk-free rate in these three economies is only 0.14%. A 0.14% T-bill rate would not be a concern if the global economy were still in free fall, but it isn’t. The global economy bottomed in the second quarter of 2009. The IMF projects that the global economy will grow by 4% in 2010. When a risk-free interest rate of 0.14% is being offered to investors who own 80% of the world’s wealth, and real economic growth is 4%, you can be assured that capital will flow from low-yielding, risk-free T-bills into risky assets that offer higher prospective returns. How and when the Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan remove policy accommodation will likely determine which markets perform best in 2010. If monetary policy is kept easy for too much longer, you are likely to see asset bubbles develop in the world’s fastest-growing economies. If monetary policy is tightened sooner rather than later, as it should be, look for a flight to quality trade.

Investing in an environment where returns are so dependent on monetary policy is most unwelcome. To invest successfully in such an environment, you want to invest for income or where an embedded secular trend is supportive of growth. Special situations, including distressed securities, which don’t always move in lock-step with broader equity markets, are another area to favor.

Share this:

  • Email
  • Twitter
  • Facebook

You Might Also Like:

  • Is This a Generational Opportunity in Foreign Stocks?
  • Expect Very Modest Returns from Equities
  • The Economy Hasn’t Done this in Over a Decade
  • Author
  • Recent Posts
Jeremy Jones, CFA
Jeremy Jones, CFA, CFP® is the Director of Research at Young Research & Publishing Inc., and the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. CNBC has ranked Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. as one of the Top 100 Financial Advisors in the nation (2019-2022) Disclosure. Jeremy is also a contributing editor of youngresearch.com.
Latest posts by Jeremy Jones, CFA (see all)
  • Money Market Assets Hit Record High: $5.4 Trillion - May 26, 2023
  • The Mania in AI Stocks Has Arrived - May 25, 2023
  • The Wisdom of Sam Zell - May 24, 2023

Search Young Research

Most Popular

  • Starving for Fixed Income? I Can Help
  • June Is Retirement Compounders Month
  • ALLIGATOR MARKET: Calm Surface Hides Danger Below
  • Vanguard Wellesley (VWINX) vs. Wellington (VWELX): Which Fund is Best?
  • CBDCs Not “Just Another Form of Money”
  • What's Hiding In the London Metals Exchange Warehouses?
  • End of ESG?
  • China Increases Its Gold Reserves for Seventh Month Straight
  • Successful Investing Is a Mindset
  • Young’s Retirement Compounders

Don’t Miss

Default Risk Among the Many Concerns with Annuities

Risk and Reward: An Efficient Frontier

How to be a Billionaire: Proven Strategies from the Titans of Wealth

Cryptocosm and Life After Google

Warning: Avoid Mutual Fund Year End Distributions

Is Gold a Good Long-term Investment?

How to Invest in Gold

Vanguard Wellington (VWELX): The Original Balanced Fund

What is the Best Gold ETF for Investing and Trading?

Procter & Gamble (PG) Stock: The Only True Dividend King

The Dividend King of the North

You’ll Love This if You’re Dreaming of an Active Retirement Life

The Importance of a Balanced Portfolio

Invest with Peace of Mind and Comfort

What Kind of Life Are You Investing For?

RSS The Latest at Richardcyoung.com

  • Oh Canada: Wildfires at a Blistering Pace
  • RAGE Gauge June: Remember When You Were A Kid and Money Was Free?
  • What Do You Know About Vanguard’s Wellesley Income Fund?
  • CRUMBLING EMPIRE: Major Hotel Flees San Francisco as City Suffers
  • MUSIC IN DANGER: Is This the Worst Use for AI?
  • Crushing the Heretics
  • Starving for Fixed Income? I Can Help
  • The Four Most Important Words in Investing
  • SUPER STATE RISING? This State Is Doing All the Right Things
  • RIP Astrud Gilberto

RSS The Latest at Yoursurvivalguy.com

  • RAGE Gauge June: Remember When You Were A Kid and Money Was Free?
  • Your Retirement Life: Striped Bass Fishing off Block Island
  • Artificial Intelligence or Four-Year Olds?
  • Forbes Global 2000: The Bigger They Are, the Harder They Fall?
  • Starving for Fixed Income? I Can Help
  • SUPER STATE RISING? This State Is Doing All the Right Things
  • End of ESG?
  • Your Survival Guy’s Take on ChatGPT and AI
  • ALLIGATOR MARKET: Calm Surface Hides Danger Below
  • My Nephew Graduates, and I’m Larry the Cable Guy

About Us

  • About Young Research
  • Archives
  • Contributors

Our Partners

  • Richard C. Young & Co.
  • Richardcyoung.com

Copyright © 2023 | Terms & Conditions

 

Loading Comments...
 

    loading Cancel
    Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
    Email check failed, please try again
    Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.