The complete energy forecast is laid out here by BP:
The energy transition underway is the main story in this year’s Outlook. Energy demand is expected to increase by around 30% by 2035 as global prosperity rises, and we are seeing the shift in the fuel mix continuing towards lower carbon fuels, with renewables the fastest growing source of energy at 7.1% a year.
Gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel at 1.6% a year, while oil’s growth will continue at 0.7% a year, although its pace of growth is expected to slow gradually. Coal’s annual growth declines sharply down to 0.2% a year compared to an annual average of 2.7% over the past 20 years
We think natural gas will grow strongly over the next 20 years, quicker than either oil or coal. Underpinning this is strong growth in supplies – particularly from U.S. shale – and the rapid expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG). What is really special about LNG is its relative mobility – being transportable on ships around the world, rather than restricted to the length of a pipeline. This means a globally integrated market is likely to emerge by 2035.
Electric vehicles are all set to grow rapidly in the next twenty years, from about one million vehicles today to something closer to 100 million by 2035. This increase could reduce the growth of oil demand by 1.2 million barrels a day (Mb/d).
As context, the number of conventional cars on our roads will continue to be the vast majority, with the total fleet expected to go from 900 million todays to nearly 1.7 billion in 2035. This will be largely down to the fast-growing economies of Asia. So while we do expect electric vehicles to carry on growing rapidly, the implications for oil demand will not be a game changer.
It may be stating the obvious, but China really matters – it is the largest market for energy, and also the world’s largest growth market for energy with an increase of nearly 2% per annum until 2035. However, this is compared to over 6% per year over the last 20 years, so what we’re seeing are China’s energy needs shifting
The growth of its economy is slowing over time, and the structure of the economy is shifting from industrial to consumer and services activity, bringing a reduction in energy intensity. The fuel mix is also set to change substantially with a series of government policies instigating a shift away from coal to cleaner, lower carbon fuels like natural gas, nuclear energy and renewables.
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