Magnus Nysveen and Elliot Busby of Rystad Energy report that the latest research shows global recoverable oil reserves held largely steady at around 1,500 billion barrels, down some 52 billion barrels from our 2023 analysis. They write:
The largest downward revisions are seen in Saudi Arabia, where development priorities have shifted from offshore capacity expansions to onshore infill drilling. The only country with any significant increase in 2024 is Argentina, with a gain of 4 billion barrels thanks to the derisking of shale projects in the Vaca Muerta formation.
This total recoverable oil resource of 1,500 billion barrels gives an upper limit of how much oil can be produced over the next 100 years or more. Of course, this upper limit is only realistic and economical if oil demand is not impacted by the energy transition, meaning oil prices would rise far above $100 per barrel. In this theoretical “high case,” total oil production would peak around 2035 at 120 million barrels per day (bpd), then decline steeply to 85 million bpd in 2050.
Our estimates of total recoverable oil resources have fallen by 700 billion barrels since 2019 due to reduced exploration activities. […]
In a more realistic outlook for oil production, total output would peak in 2030 at 108 million bpd and decline to 55 million bpd in 2050, with oil prices staying around $50 per barrel in real terms. Under this scenario, about one-third of the world’s recoverable oil, 500 billion barrels, would become stranded due to unprofitable developments. Such a realistic energy transition scenario would restrict global warming to 1.9 degrees.
Rystad Energy also reports proven oil reserves at 449 billion barrels, according to recognized standards. This provides a lower limit for remaining oil reserves if no new development projects were to be approved and all exploration activities were stopped. This is a significant upward revision since 2023 driven by increased onshore infill drilling in Saudi Arabia.
Read more here.
