Rystad Energy reports that global refining is shifting east as Asia and the Middle East expand capacity with large, modern refineries, while older plants in the US and Europe close due to costs and declining demand. Despite fewer refineries overall, global capacity has grown 15% since 2005. Emissions are rising in growth regions, while Western refiners focus on efficiency and low-carbon upgrades, highlighting a growing divide in global refining strategies. They write:
Today, the Middle East and China, alongside India, are fueling the growth in global refining capacity, with the latter two serving as key drivers for Asia. China has nearly doubled its refining capacity over the past two decades, increasing from 10.6 million bpd in 2005 to 18.8 million bpd in 2025. This expansion reflects long-term efforts to meet rising domestic demand and improve energy security, while also positioning the country as a key exporter of refined products. India’s refining capacity has also grown steadily, from 2.9 million bpd in 2005 to approximately 5.2 million bpd this year, supported by similar drivers, including strong domestic consumption and strategic investments in refining infrastructure.
Middle Eastern refiners have also expanded their refining capacity in the last 20 years from nearly 8 million bpd to roughly 13 million bpd, with major additions concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This push reflects a strategic shift to move beyond crude exports by capturing more value through downstream integration. […]
National oil companies are pursuing a different path, expanding aggressively for better downstream integration. Saudi Aramco has expanded its refining footprint through multibillion-dollar annual investments, developing advanced complexes such as Jazan and forming joint ventures including YASREF and SATORP. While these projects boost capacity and complexity, they also carry higher emissions intensity, averaging around 41 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) per barrel, reflecting the processing of heavier crudes and the energy demands of large, sophisticated systems.
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