US real GDP grew at a strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2025, up from 3.8% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ initial estimate. Growth was driven by higher consumer spending, exports, and government spending, partially offset by a decline in investment, while imports fell. Inflation measures moved higher, with the PCE price index rising 2.8% and core PCE up 2.9%. Corporate profits rebounded sharply, and overall economic momentum improved, despite the report being delayed due to the recent government shutdown. The BEA writes:
Real gross domestic product (GDP)Â increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
Due to the recent government shutdown, this initial report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the advance estimate originally scheduled for October 30 and the second estimate originally scheduled for November 26.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below.
Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected a smaller decrease in investment, an acceleration in consumer spending, and upturns in exports and government spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the second quarter.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the second quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent (revised) in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent (revised) in the second quarter.
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $166.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $6.8 billion in the second quarter.
