The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects winter energy costs to vary significantly depending on the heating fuel households use. More than 40% of U.S. homes that rely on electricity are expected to see their heating bills rise about 4%, while households using heating oil could face the largest increase, with spending projected to rise 21%. In contrast, energy spending is expected to fall 9% for natural gas users and 3% for propane users because of lower fuel prices.
Heating oil costs are rising largely because global distillate production has declined, pushing international prices higher. At the same time, U.S. distillate exports increased 20% during the first seven months of 2026, particularly to Europe, leaving U.S. inventories about 11% below the five-year average heading into winter. Weather will also affect costs, with warmer conditions expected in the Northeast but colder weather forecast for the West.
