Predictions. They’re right up there in the mountain range of Mount Hope and Chance Peak near the end of “Failure to Plan” trail. Because when it comes to life, especially in investing, accidents that happen are most often accidents that should have been avoided—and could have been avoided. And yet, after every crash, slip, and fall, there’s carnage below with injured souls blaming the conditions, the weather, and never much self-introspection—no questioning of the route taken up the mountain. When I see the glossy reports spit out by a robot or algorithm and delivered by a salesman calling … [Read more...]

In my conversations with you, you’re asking, “Hey, Survival Guy, why are bond prices down? Aren’t they supposed to be our anchor to windward?” “Of course, they are,” I say, “but bond prices decline as interest rates rise.” “Well, don’t take this the wrong way Survival Guy, but isn’t it obvious rates are going higher?” you say. “About as obvious as predicting Covid or the war in Ukraine,” I respond. Look, I’m Your Survival Guy, not Your Hope and a Prayer Guy. I know how ugly stock and bond markets can get, and I don’t get too worked up about temporary declines in prices. Your … [Read more...]

OK, in my conversations with you, you’re obviously concerned. You’re seeing a White House Spokeswoman tell you with a straight face that higher prices are a “sacrifice” we all have to make. That’s just stupid. Has there ever been a more out of touch administration? How about blue-state politicians and corporate elite? They recently figured out where Kyiv is on a map and tell us we need to defend it. Why? What about defending our southern border? What about all the energy that’s untapped here? Why are we letting Putin push us around? How much money is the Biden family beholden to in Ukraine? … [Read more...]

Happy Monday from Your Survival Guy. It was quite a week for two S&P 500 darlings, Facebook (Meta) and Amazon. What’s interesting is how so many commentators are saying, “I told you so,” as if predicting the future is easy. I can give you plenty of reasons why it could be tough sledding ahead for Amazon’s stock price. But the low hanging fruit is to pick at the road ahead for Facebook. Here’s my takeaway, why bother with either when such huge price swings are part of the equation? Because when everyone’s talking about the same stocks, isn’t the secret out? Why not focus on the picks and … [Read more...]

Yes, money can buy you happiness. How? By working for it. Not wishing and hoping the market does it for you. Your most productive asset is yourself. Think about the market as a way to keep what you’ve made. You work too hard for your money to lose it. And when you consider how important your money is to your family’s freedom, you can't afford to take risks. Listen, I’m the weatherman, not the weather. When T-Bills blow around like dust bunnies on a wood floor, you need to invest accordingly. Who else do you know that’s writing to you about this? You know I’m Your Survival Guy, not someone … [Read more...]

OK, blue-states are drowning in pension debt that may or may not be paid—think Illinois. And yet these cities and states are issuing more debt in the form of municipal bonds. Is that good or bad for investors? Last year the S&P Municipal Bond Index was up 1.76%, but when you dig into the guts of it, there are plenty of reasons, at least for me, to be concerned. Number one on my list is the average duration of the fund—with its 212,627 constituents—is 12.13 years. This isn’t covered in the article I quote below, but it’s a major factor in the fund’s future performance if interest rates … [Read more...]