Cecile Gutscher writes at Bloomberg that corporate bonds are offering their highest yields in years: You need to rifle through 18 years of history to find selloffs that compare to the one corporate bond investors are now enduring. Debt of American companies just posted their third-worst 100-day returns since 2000, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. index, as tighter monetary conditions leave their mark on high-quality bonds with longer maturities. With negative returns likely to scare off retail investors, the outlook for the asset class looks grim, JPMorgan strategists said in a … [Read more...]

Regulations have been slowly destroying the bond market in America. But, new algorithmic trading computers are stepping in to modernize the market. Bond trading desks are relying more on computer driven trading all the time. The FT reports: While debt issuance has surged, traders say liquidity has deteriorated sharply in recent years, as a torrent of regulations forced banks to reduce their trading desks. Putting precise numbers around this decline is tricky, as liquidity is an ephemeral concept. Asking a dozen traders will typically yield at least as many answers. But broadly speaking, … [Read more...]

10-year Treasury yields cracked through 3% for the first time since 2013. With short-term yields on the rise, and now long-term yields starting to follow suit, the yield drought appears to be coming to an end. … [Read more...]

For years PIMCO was driven by the investing acumen of Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian. After an acrimonious split with El-Erian in 2014, and unceremoniously dumping Gross the same year, PIMCO's plan is to replace these titans of the bond industry with some algorithmic software and an office in trendy Austin, Texas. The Wall Street Journal's Justin Baer writes: Pimco’s mutual funds had $33 billion in net inflows in 2017, reversing a four-year stretch of client withdrawals, Morningstar said. While Pimco remains one of the world’s biggest investors, with about $1.7 trillion in assets, the firm … [Read more...]

You always need to study your downside protection and do what’s difficult to do. Recently, I added half of my 2017 SEP-IRA contribution to Vanguard GNMA—a sizable addition to my overall GNMA position. I didn’t do it because I feel like I can predict where interest rates are headed. Who can? It’s all fine and good when the talking heads spout off about three or four rate increases this year and more to come next year, but in reality their advice doesn’t cost them a penny. If they’re wrong and the market crashes, like it did twice already this century, will they be there for you, or me for … [Read more...]

Originally posted November 1, 2017. A phrase I often hear from prospective clients is, “I don’t understand bonds, but I know I need them, and that’s one of the reasons I’m talking with you.” There’s a lot of wisdom in that phrase. It’s like saying to your dentist, “I don’t understand root canals, but my tooth is killing me and I know I need one, and that’s the reason I’m sitting in this chair.” Knowing what we need is different from understanding how to do it. When I think back to when I first joined Dick Young’s management firm in 1998, he had a huge following of investors seeking … [Read more...]

Yesterday the S&P 500 fell by 2.5%. At the same time, the Vanguard GNMA Index fund was up 0.2%. Having powerful counterbalancing bond funds like Vanguard GNMA in your portfolio can prevent you from taking massive hits to your wealth. Originally posted on Yoursurvivalguy.com. … [Read more...]

If yields rise above 3%, stocks will end the year down. That is according to Jeffery Gundlach, manager of the Doubeline Total Return Bond Fund. Gundlach is of course a bond fund manager, so one should take his views on stocks with a grain of salt, but he may not be wrong. Three percent yields aren’t high by historical standards, but global central banks have kept rates so low for so long that economies may have become overly dependent on ultra-low rates. Bloomberg reports: If yields on the 10-year Treasury break above 3 percent, there’s a high chance U.S. stocks will end the year down, … [Read more...]

When economic growth booms, Treasury yields often rise and the prospects for junk bond issuers tends to improve. In an environment where interest rates are rising because economic growth is strong, junk bonds tend to outperform Treasuries. Spreads (difference in yields) on junk bonds narrow as the risk of default falls in a better economy Don’t tell that to the crowd who has been reaching for yield in junk bonds though. As the FT reports, high-yield debt redemptions reached their second-largest net outflow, $10.9 billion last week. Central banks have distorted risk free yields for so long … [Read more...]