Happy Monday from Your Survival Guy. It was quite a week for two S&P 500 darlings, Facebook (Meta) and Amazon. What’s interesting is how so many commentators are saying, “I told you so,” as if predicting the future is easy. I can give you plenty of reasons why it could be tough sledding ahead for Amazon’s stock price. But the low hanging fruit is to pick at the road ahead for Facebook. Here’s my takeaway, why bother with either when such huge price swings are part of the equation? Because when everyone’s talking about the same stocks, isn’t the secret out? Why not focus on the picks and … [Read more...]

Yes, money can buy you happiness. How? By working for it. Not wishing and hoping the market does it for you. Your most productive asset is yourself. Think about the market as a way to keep what you’ve made. You work too hard for your money to lose it. And when you consider how important your money is to your family’s freedom, you can't afford to take risks. Listen, I’m the weatherman, not the weather. When T-Bills blow around like dust bunnies on a wood floor, you need to invest accordingly. Who else do you know that’s writing to you about this? You know I’m Your Survival Guy, not someone … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy wants you to understand that you own bonds so you can invest in stocks. As the late, great, Ben Graham explained about portfolio allocation, investors need to fall within a 70-30 mix of stocks and bonds, or vice versa. In other words, even the most aggressive stock jocks need to have some bonds as an anchor to windward. You might be shocked at how much of a cushion having just 30% in bonds can provide for a portfolio in a market decline. But check out Your Survival Guy's Deadliest Markets This Century for proof. And for the most conservative, or wealthy among us, … [Read more...]

OK, blue-states are drowning in pension debt that may or may not be paid—think Illinois. And yet these cities and states are issuing more debt in the form of municipal bonds. Is that good or bad for investors? Last year the S&P Municipal Bond Index was up 1.76%, but when you dig into the guts of it, there are plenty of reasons, at least for me, to be concerned. Number one on my list is the average duration of the fund—with its 212,627 constituents—is 12.13 years. This isn’t covered in the article I quote below, but it’s a major factor in the fund’s future performance if interest rates … [Read more...]

I hear it all the time. “I don’t understand bonds.” So I’m going to clear that up for you. But first, let me just say, it’s a real disservice to successful Americans like you to be told, ad nauseam, that we’re in a “bond bubble of epic proportions.” Listen, I want you to be a calm, cool, and collected investor, not a mad man. Talking stocks is a holiday tradition. But the reason you own bonds—wait for it—is so you can own stocks. That’s it. Period. End of story. That’s all you need to know to understand bonds. Look, the stock market discounts everyone’s best and worst ideas. Putting your … [Read more...]

 "I like people who don't need everyone to like them." -Tony Soprano, 'The Sopranos'. There’s been some yappin’ lately about bonds. Why own bonds when yields are so low? Let me explain. In times of trouble, look at who gets paid first, and you realize why bonds tend to do fine when the stock market falls apart. Look how Treasuries saved portfolios earlier this century. When you invest your cold hard cash, you’re lending your money to the street, if you will. Think about your bond money like it’s Tony Soprano. Do you think Tony liked it when he wasn’t paid? Does anybody? No. But … [Read more...]