When times are tough, Vanguard GNMA continues to pay income, much like it does when times are good. For me, GNMA is an anchor to windward no matter which way the wind is blowing. And even though Young Research, which provides research and analysis to investment advisor Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., recommends laddering U.S. Government and Corporate bonds, you could do a lot worse than owning some GNMA. Originally posted on Yoursurvivalguy.com. … [Read more...]

It’s time for investors to focus on Treasuries. As stocks tumbled 3% yesterday, Sinead Carew wrote at Reuters: NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 marking its biggest daily decline since Feb. 8, and technology stocks led the losses as rising U.S. Treasury yields sent investors fleeing from risky assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 831.83 points, or 3.15 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite .IXICdropped 315.97 points, or 4.08 percent, to 7,422.05. Read more here. … [Read more...]

James Mackintosh, writing in The Wall Street Journal, explains that as the term premium rises on bonds, hardest hit could be the so-called "acronym stocks," also known as the FAANGs. With rates on Treasuries rising, the discounted future profits of these tech giants look less attractive to investors. Mackintosh gives investors in the FAANGs three reasons to worry, writing: There are three reasons to worry. The first is that the acronym stocks— Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Netflix, Microsoft and others arranged into the FANGs, FAAMGs and so on—flew too high, and will now … [Read more...]

For years tech companies with vast overseas cash reserves have invested their wealth in the short-term debt of other corporations. But now that Apple and other companies are taking advantage of tax reform to bring home cash held abroad, the demand for that short-term corporate debt is drying up. Bloomberg's Molly Smith reports: Once the biggest buyers of short-dated corporate debt, Apple along with 20 other cash-rich companies including Microsoft Corp. and Oracle Corp. have turned into sellers. While they once bought $25 billion of debt per quarter, they’re now selling in $50 billion clips, … [Read more...]

If you haven’t constructed your bond portfolio yet, then what are you waiting for? Once you’re in your 50s, the time has come to own some bonds. Consider bonds your anchor to windward. Determining how much you, not your neighbor, needs in bonds is a most personal equation. Only you and your spouse and hopefully your advisor know the right mix for you. Period.   Unfortunately, those well into their golden years who put off bonds paid a devastating price in the two stock market crashes so far this century. So what are you waiting for? Imagine how you’ll feel in the third stock … [Read more...]

Facebook and Twitter shares both cratered this week. It may be time to ask yourself, as I did here on January 17, 2018, are you ready for when the stock market crashes? When the stock market crashes, there will have been plenty of opportunities for you to prepare for it. But that’s easier said than done. Because to do so you need to go against the grain. For example, bond investors are getting a blast of Arctic air as interest rates march higher. Prices are down. But does that mean it’s time to sell? No. The key to weathering this bond chill is to remember why you own bonds in the … [Read more...]

Thirty-year Treasuries yield 3.11% today. Ten-year Treasuries yield 2.97%. You get an extra 0.13% in income each year for lending the government money for an additional 30 years. Sounds like a raw deal. Not according to some institutional investors as reported here by the FT. The 30-year or “long bond”, currently yielding 3.10 per cent, is attractive for so-called buy and hold investors such as pension funds and insurers who need to offset lengthy liabilities over the coming decades. A steady rise in yields from below 2.70 per cent in December has been accompanied by stronger demand at … [Read more...]

Only two times before has the ratio of junk bond yields to high-grade bond yields been lower than it is now. Those two instances preceded the Asian market crisis, and the global financial crisis. Bloomberg's Sid Verma and Cecile Gutscher report: According to a key valuation metric, investors are headed for the kind of bullishness on high-yield bonds that’s been seen just twice before: during the halcyon days of 1997’s tech bubble before the Asia crash, and on the eve of the global financial crisis a decade later. The ratio between U.S. junk-bond yields and their high-grade counterparts has … [Read more...]