The Wall Street Journal reports that Americans in high tax states like New York and California are jumping into municipal bonds to shelter their investments from taxation. Maybe these are residents who can flee from the high tax states they call home, as so many others have. Now that the federal government has stopped subsidizing these states' high taxation, residents are feeling the full burden of their states' big-spending ways. The Journal reports: Investors in high-tax states like New York and California are piling into municipal bonds this year, fueled in part by the 2017 tax overhaul … [Read more...]
Young Research & Publishing has been providing research and insights on bonds to institutional investors, corporate financial officers, business owners, and individual investors for over four decades. Richard C. Young started Young Research & Publishing in the 70s to publish the authoritative Young’s World Money Forecast, a 50-page monthly investment report for institutional land high net worth investors. Today, our research on bonds is geared toward investors in or nearing retirement who are looking to preserve and protect wealth.
This Has Never Happened to German Bonds Before Now
For the first time ever, Germany's yield curve is completely negative. Bunds from 2 year to 30 year are all yielding negative rates. Bloomberg's John Ainger reports: German 30-year bonds rallied to send yields across the whole of its debt market below 0% for the first time after President Donald Trump ratcheted up the U.S. trade war with China. The euro area’s biggest economy joined Denmark and Switzerland in the region in offering negative returns to investors should the notes be held to maturity, taking the total stock of investment-grade debt yielding less than 0% to $14 trillion … [Read more...]
Would You Buy this Bond?
Imagine a bond from a creditworthy country that pays you each year for 100 years. The only catch is, it only pays 1.2%. Would you buy it? In Bloomberg, Marcus Ashworth calls the idea of the 100 year bond at 1.2% "madness." He writes: If you needed any more proof that the world of fixed income has gone mad in the rabid hunt for yield, look no further than the Republic of Austria. If you liked its 100-year debt issued two years ago with a 2.1% return, how about settling for the same maturity for 1.2% now? Yes, you read that right: A 100-year bond yielding about 1.2%. Austria is in the … [Read more...]
Would You Hire an Advisor to Buy Your Next Car?
Raise your hand if you enjoy the car buying experience? Anybody? The consumer car buying experience is widely regarded as one of the worst there is. The Internet has made things a little bit easier, as you can now do some basic research so you don’t have to walk blindly into the dealership, but the dealer still has the upper hand. If you try to negotiate a price on your trade-in for example, the dealer will budge less on the new car you are trying to buy. If you are leasing, the dealer may give you a good price on the new car and your trade, but he’ll jack up the lease … [Read more...]
Why Not Invest at Negative Interest Rates?
Would you pay someone else to take your money? If you answered no, good for you. If you answered yes, many investors in European government and even corporate debt feel the same. The Wall Street Journal's Daniel Kruger reports that investors have been paying European governments and even corporations like LVMH to hold their money by purchasing bonds at negative yields. Kruger writes: A growing number of investors are paying governments in Europe for the privilege of holding their bonds. The amount of negative-yielding government bonds outstanding through 2049 has risen 20% this year to … [Read more...]
Here’s How to Build Yourself a Barricade Against Volatility
Back in October of 2006, as the crest of the Housing Bubble was forming, I remained doggedly attached to my principled investment strategy of diversification and compound interest. That month I encouraged readers to build a “volatility barricade.” Here’s what I wrote (with updated numbers to reflect the intervening years): Your Volatility Barricade Your portfolio’s fixed-income position does two things for you. (1) It either throws off cash for you to spend at Ace or True Value (not Wal-Mart or Home Depot) in retirement or, instead, allows your interest to compound in an IRA. (2) Your … [Read more...]
After Storied Career, Bill Gross Retires
Bill Gross, manager of the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, best known for his time managing the Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Total Return Fund, has decided to retire. Gross has spent over forty years changing the way people invest in bonds. Bloomberg reports: Gross, who announced his retirement Monday, struggled in the last four years as head of the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund. His performance failed to match the stellar track record he achieved while building Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Total Return Fund into a bond giant. “I look back … [Read more...]
A 2019 Survival Guy Investment Strategy
Last year Vanguard GNMA made just under one percent or 0.87% for 2018 as interest payments offset a decline in bond prices from rising interest rates. As I’ve written to you before, you don’t want to be in the interest rate prediction business. You simply want to collect your interest payments and let the chips fall as they may. When you near retirement your success as an investor depends on a nine to five mentality—work nine to five to steadily save money for retirement and invest to keep what you’ve saved. It’s that simple. A survival guy investment strategy helps you to win the war … [Read more...]
American Municipalities Offer Less Info, More Debt
You might think that after the blunders of the recent past, public borrowers would have learned the lessons of 2008, but that would be wrong. Rather than increasing the information available, municipalities are providing less transparency to lenders. Gunjan Banerji and Heather Gillers write in The Wall Street Journal: U.S. cities and counties are using fewer ratings to assess the risks of the bonds they sell, providing investors with just one opinion on an increasing amount of new debt. Roughly 25% of the dollar value of all municipal debt issued this year carried a single grade from one … [Read more...]
Junk Bonds Get Trashed
Investors are running from junk bonds, with spreads widening to the highest levels since 2016, and junk bond funds losing suffering withdrawals of $11 billion over just the last six weeks alone. At Bloomberg, Kelsey Butler reports on the rout: Pummeled by expectations of slower growth, outflows and dropping oil prices, junk bonds are poised for their worst returns in more than seven years. High-yield bonds are returning -2.64 percent in December, on track for the worst month since September 2011. The asset class has lost 2.59 percent so far this year, set for the biggest loss since returns … [Read more...]
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