A poll of analysts by Reuters found that they believe Arabica coffee prices could drop 30% by the end of 2025, reaching $2.95 per pound, reports Nigel Hunt of Reuters. Hunt writes:
Arabica coffee futures are expected to fall by around 30% by the end of 2025, with recent record high prices expected to curb demand and early signs pointing to a bumper Brazilian crop next year, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The poll had a median forecast for arabica prices at the end of 2025 of $2.95 per pound, a drop of 30% from Wednesday’s close and a loss of 6% from end-2024.
“Demand will stagnate in response to very high prices,” one participant in the poll of 12 traders and analysts said. […]
Arabica coffee prices were among the strongest performing commodity markets in 2024, rising by about 70%, and have continued to climb this year hitting a record high of $4.2995 on February 11. […]
A larger harvest was also forecast in top robusta producer Vietnam of 29 million bags, up from 28 million in 2024/25.
“If weather conditions remain favourable (in Vietnam), we expect production to recover given the investments made by farmers in recent years,” one participant said.
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