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Is the Market Bracing for a Correction?

August 30, 2021 By E.J. Smith

By solarseven @ Shutterstock.com

In The Wall Street Journal, Karen Langley reports on some shifting in the market that is taking place, with shares of defensive stocks taking a leading role. Moves like this have sometimes signaled preparation in the market for a correction. She writes:

Some of the hottest stocks in the U.S. are pointing to an economic cool-down.

Utilities and healthcare are among the best-performing groups in the S&P 500 so far this quarter, with gains of 7.8% and 6.6%, respectively, compared with a 4.9% rise in the broad stock index. Big winners include utility NextEra Energy Inc., NEE +0.25% which is up 14% this quarter, while shares of medical company Danaher Corp. DHR +1.14% are up 19%.

The gains are noteworthy because investors typically pile into those types of stocks when they are expecting the outlook to darken. Visits to the doctor and electricity use are less apt to decline in a pinch than spending on vacations or new furniture. Goldman Sachs this month cut its third-quarter U.S. economic growth forecast to 5.5% from 9%, citing slowing consumer spending in the face of renewed Covid-19 outbreaks.

A drop in economic growth from its mid-2021 pace hardly presages a recession, which is the development that often spells the end of stocks’ advance. But rallies in these so-called defensive sectors can presage broader market retreats, investors say, potentially spelling out a fresh test for a market whose post-pandemic rise has surprised many stock-market bulls.

“When those sectors are doing well, as they’re doing now, that tells you that the market is bracing for either a slowdown in the economy or some sort of a correction in the broad market,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity-market strategist at asset manager Federated Hermes.

Action Line: If you’re only invested in index funds, and you don’t have a plan for your portfolio when the market corrects, you need to get one now. If you need help, I would love to talk with you.

Originally posted on Your Survival Guy. 

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E.J. Smith
E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998. E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West and Paris.

Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@youngresearch.com

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