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Archives for February 2012

Durable Goods Give Back

February 28, 2012 By Young Research

Today the Census Bureau announced that durable goods orders in January fell by -4%, the most in three years. Timothy R. Homan writes in Businessweek, “The expiration at the end of 2011 of a tax incentive allowing full depreciation on equipment purchases may have prompted a slowdown in investment at the start of this year.” Drops in orders were most apparent in the types of goods businesses would buy and depreciate under normal circumstances. Homan continues “Today’s report showed bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business investment in items such as … [Read more...]

Real Estate’s Rising Interest Rates

February 28, 2012 By E.J. Smith

You might want to take another look at refinancing your home before interest rates go higher. Bailouts and fees may put an end to the record-low interest rates we’re seeing today. The warning signs are flashing. One closely watched metric is the spread, or difference, between what banks are charging for mortgages and what investors receive on mortgage-backed securities or bonds. Usually it’s a difference of about 0.5%. The spread has widened to 1% or about double its 30-year average. This means homebuyers are being charged higher interest rates while bond investors receive lower rates. Not … [Read more...]

Video: Bears Take on the Bulls

February 27, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Lakshman Achuthan, Chief Operations Officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute David Rosenberg, Cheif Economist Gluskin Sheff … [Read more...]

What We’re Reading 2-24-12

February 24, 2012 By Young Research

Pension gap spells trouble for muni bonds, Gillian Tett, Financial Times SEC May Ticket Speeding Traders, Scott Patterson and Andrew Ackerman, The Wall Street Journal Quitting while they’re behind, The Economist Why Obama’s corporate tax plan is a total bust, James Pethokoukis, The American Christie: Buffett Should ‘Write a Check and Shut Up’, Stacie Servetah, Bloomberg Why We Can't Believe the Fed, Benn Steil, The Wall Street Journal Apple's Size Clouds Market, Jonathan Cheng and Brendan Intindola, The Wall Street Journal Plan B for China's Wealthy: Moving to the U.S., … [Read more...]

Currencies in Crisis, Oil Spiking: Time to Buy?

February 24, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have staged impressive rallies to begin 2012. As of this morning, the Dow was up more than 6% YTD. Improving economic data and a flood of global central bank liquidity have helped levitate stock prices. Volatility has also declined markedly in recent weeks and now sits at an eight month low. As stock prices have risen, economic data has improved, and volatility has dropped, investors have become more bullish. Our chart on the spread between the percentage of bulls and bears in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey is … [Read more...]

The Looming Threat to Gas Prices: Strait of Hormuz Explained

February 23, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

… [Read more...]

Poison Annuities on Your Retirement Fund Menu?

February 21, 2012 By E.J. Smith

The Executive Office of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers wants you to buy annuities in your retirement account. The proposal, released this month, “Supporting Retirement for American Families,” should be titled “American Families Supporting Insurance Companies.” At the heart of the proposal is a plan to allow participants in defined-benefit pension plans, 401(k)s and other defined contribution plans, and IRAs the choice of using a portion of their money to purchase an annuity. It’s being sold as an immediate annuity. But it may open the door to the world of government-sponsored … [Read more...]

Outliving Your Money

February 17, 2012 By E.J. Smith

In this 0%-interest-rate environment, public pensions like Rhode Island’s are using an assumed rate of return of 7.5%. If and when that estimate goes unmet, it’s up to taxpayers to make up the difference. It’s preposterous that public pensions are assuming a 7.5% rate of return. The only way they’ll meet their mark is to take on more risk. That’s a bad four-letter word for any investor—never mind retirees. Money managers will attempt to meet their hurdle with other people’s money. But they have no skin in the game, so why not swing for the fences? In the private sector, the idea of … [Read more...]

Coordinated Currency Devaluation: Time to Buy Gold

February 17, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Not to be outdone by Europe or the U.S., the Bank of Japan announced yesterday that it would print an additional 10 trillion yen ($128 billion) to expand the size of its asset-purchase program. The BOJ’s decision comes on the heels of the European Central Bank’s December decision to massively expand its balance sheet and the Bank of England’s decision to increase the size of its own money printing campaign. The yen tumbled vis a vis the U.S. dollar and the euro on the news. The BOJ’s decision is yet more evidence of coordinated global fiat currency devaluation by the world’s largest central … [Read more...]

We Are All Subprime Now

February 17, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Over the last 10 years (since year-end 2002), profligate spending in Washington has resulted in a staggering $6.9-trillion increase in debt held by the public. That’s $22,000 for every man, woman, and child in America. A family of four is looking at an $88,000 increase in their debt burden. How generous of those folks in Washington to rack up 88 grand in debt on your family’s behalf. Be sure you send a thank-you card. The median family income in the U.S. is about $60,000. That means that in only 10 years, Washington has raised the average family’s debt burden by 146 percentage points … [Read more...]

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