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Archives for March 2015

Millennials Shun Boomers’ Stuff

March 31, 2015 By E.J. Smith

I came across this article thanks to the folks over at WSJ Adviser. Apparently the kids don't want all of your stuff. A seismic shift of stuff is underway in homes all over America. Members of the generation that once embraced sex, drugs and rock-and-roll are trying to offload their place settings for 12, family photo albums and leather sectionals. Their offspring don’t want them. As baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, start cleaning out attics and basements, many are discovering that millennials, born between 1980 and 2000, are not so interested in the lifestyle trappings or … [Read more...]

The Monday Melee: Incomes Grow Slower

March 30, 2015 By Young Research

Long Term Personal Income Trend Not Looking Great In February, Personal Income growth continued, but at a slower pace for the second month in a row. Growth rates are still far from their historical average of 6.8% per year, and for the last two months have fallen further away from that average. Personal Income growth has regularly been below 6.8% per year since the 1980s. Some States Faring Better than Others Quotable: "I'm living so far beyond my income that we may almost be said to be living apart." - E.E. Cummings       Educated … [Read more...]

Transports Send Signal of Caution

March 27, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Young Research’s Moving the Goods Index is sending a signal of caution on the economy. Our Moving the Goods Index is a modified market-capitalization weighted index of non-airline transportation companies. Transportation stocks are often a leading indicator of economic momentum. The chart below shows that our Moving the Goods Index is rolling over relative to the broader S&P 500. While the relative underperformance of the transports may be an industry specific issue, it could be signaling something more ominous. Savvy investors should take it as a sign of caution.   … [Read more...]

Is this the Reason the Stock Market is Falling?

March 26, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

We’ve written about the three big non-profit players in the stock market that are helping to contribute to an overshoot in prices today and will likely force an undershoot during the next major downturn. See the December 2014 issue of Global Investment Strategy (subscription required) for an example. The corporate sector, via share buybacks is one of the non-profit players (High frequency traders and hot money index-based ETF investors are the others). Zerohedge has a nice post up summarizing a Goldman research piece on the impact of corporate buybacks. There is a blackout window for … [Read more...]

Gold Tested Again, Passes

March 25, 2015 By Young Research

Over the last week gold retested prices near $1150/ounce and continued to find support at that level. Since then prices have risen to $1192.88/ounce. Emerging markets Kazakhstan and Tajikistan both increased their purchases of gold in February. Putting downward pressure on the price has been India’s failure to cut the import duty on gold. A cut on the duty was expected and its failure to materialize hurts Indian demand for gold. Meanwhile in China, the government is fostering greater interest in gold by allowing a major expansion of gold mining and trading in the Middle Kingdom. But most vital … [Read more...]

What to Expect from the Stock Market

March 24, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Have heard this from your broker or advisor? “The stock market is a discounting mechanism.” “That’s factored into the price.” “Investors know about that risk, so it is in the price.” I have been guilty of this myself in the past, but it is a poor use of language. It can misguide and confuse those who aren’t deeply familiar with financial markets. It is of course true that financial markets are a discounting mechanism, but asset prices only discount the risk of future events. They never fully discount the event until it happens. So if your broker tells you some future event is discounted in … [Read more...]

Dot Plot Confusion

March 23, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Did the Fed really get more dovish at its last meeting? St. Louis Fed President James Bullard explains that market participants may have misinterpreted the Fed’s view on the economy based on its interest rate projections. The Fed should lose the dot plots and give us its base case projections each quarter. … [Read more...]

The Monday Melee: The Grid

March 23, 2015 By Young Research

Quotable: "Electricity is really just organized lightning." - George Carlin Why We're Better Together: Community micro-grids backed by power storage devices like Tesla batteries may be on the horizon. These small power networks could be more reliable than traditional continent spanning grids. But until costs are reduced dramatically and bugs are worked out, traditional grid networks will remain a much more efficient way to distribute power. Massive grids allow a reduction in overall generating capacity by linking areas where peak demands happen at different times. The IEA shows here that … [Read more...]

Even the Bulls Know the Market is Rigged

March 20, 2015 By Young Research

CNBC: Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, shares his view of Fed guidance on the U.S. economy. The markets are all rigged, he says, due to the influence of central bankers. … [Read more...]

Moving the Goal Posts

March 19, 2015 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The Federal Reserve met yesterday and Chair Yellen held a press conference to announce the results of what America’s monetary politburo decided. As was widely expected, Yellen & Co., dropped language about being patient on hiking interest rates. The implication is that the Fed can now hike rates at any meeting. But don’t get too excited. In an apparent effort to keep Goldman flush, and to avoid another  spasm in interest markets as occurred during the so-called taper tantrum in 2013, Yellen & Co. struck a much more dovish tone on the economy and rates. The Fed downgraded its forecast … [Read more...]

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