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Archives for February 2017

New Correlation Meltdown Could Punish the Indexing Miracle

October 26, 2017 By E.J. Smith

You don't need more reason's than this to make sure your portfolio is diversified. Christopher Whittall writes in The Wall Street Journal that correlation among assets has fallen to its lowest level since 2006. Developed-world stocks and bond prices climbed in the summer of 2016 on a belief weak growth would persuade central banks to keep their massive stimulus programs in place for longer. But as expectations cranked up for higher growth and less stimulus, differentiation made a comeback. Bond prices crumbled and stocks surged. Markets that once moved closer together were parting ways. … [Read more...]

How to Invest at Peak Investor Complacency

October 26, 2017 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

If you follow the markets closely, you know that investor complacency has been heightened. Volatility is low, up days are bigger and more frequent than down days, and the few down days the market experiences have closed off of their lows. Bloomberg reports that investor complacency is near a two-decade high and reminiscent of past major market tops. Is that a reason to panic? No, but it is a faint voice among the cacophony coming from the bulls to approach the markets with caution. If you're an equity investor and feel like things can't be this good, you're probably right. On Thursday, the … [Read more...]

China’s Latest Move to Prevent a Currency Crisis

October 26, 2017 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The FT explains here that China has managed to stem the flight of capital from the country with tighter capital controls, but this is likely more of a Band-Aid than a solution. Capital that wants to leave China will eventually find its way around tighter controls. Look for China's currency, the yuan to continue to weaken as a result. Foreign property investment by Chinese companies plunged by 84 per cent last month, as Beijing’s capital controls choked off the flow of foreign acquisitions. In an effort to curb capital outflows and ease downward pressure on the renminbi, Chinese regulators … [Read more...]

Could a Risky New Tax Leave Retail Floundering?

October 26, 2017 By Dick Young

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the proposed "border adjustment tax." Retail businesses are organizing to fight a tax that could make every imported good Americans buy 20% more expensive. CNBC's Krystina Gustafson writes: The NRF's forecast comes as retailers are eyeing the potential impacts of a border adjustment tax, a GOP proposal that threatens to slap a 20 percent tax on goods they import and sell in the U.S. The industry has banded together to fight the tax, which they argue could wipe out their earnings and raise prices for consumers. A recent analysis by Ernst and Young, … [Read more...]

Can You Retire in the Best Shape of Your Life?

October 26, 2017 By E.J. Smith

What good is your retirement if you’re not healthy enough to enjoy it? Not that retirement is in this guy’s mind. Dan Pompei wrote at BleacherReport.com that at 39, Tom Brady is in better shape than ever. At 39, Peyton Manning no longer could throw the way he used to. He missed seven starts with a foot injury and had a 67.9 passer rating—easily the worst of his career. And he knew it was time to exit the arena. At 39, Brady led the AFC in passer rating, yards per attempt and passing yards per game. The Patriots won 11 of his 12 starts, leading many to believe he was the league's MVP. And … [Read more...]

In the World of Fertilizer, America is Surging

October 26, 2017 By Dick Young

One relatively less obvious benefit of America's shale-gas revolution is the more competitive production of urea based fertilizers. China leads the world in production of this value-added commodity, but the U.S. is surging to overtake the Middle Kingdom thanks to plentiful, low cost natural gas production. In 2016, U.S. production increased by 24% while Chinese production fell 7%. This is one area where America can beat China on cost. U.S. fertilizer companies can produce a metric ton of urea using natgas for $130. Meanwhile Chinese producers, typically using anthracite coal as a feedstock, … [Read more...]

Is a Sleepy Market Threatening Investors with New Risk?

October 26, 2017 By E.J. Smith

Don’t be lulled to sleep by this market. Just because there haven’t been any real neck-snapping moves, up or down, doesn’t mean there won’t be any. Unfortunately the trade that favors a tepid market is getting more crowded by the day. What’s worse is that the investors coming in aren’t the big players, it’s mom & pop. The DailyShot details the story: Equity Markets: Anecdotal evidence suggests that short volatility trades have made their way into the retail world. It seems that mom & pop investors are loading up on XIV – an ETN that shorts near-term VIX futures (just as bigger … [Read more...]

An Investment Risk that Should be on your Radar

October 3, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

While the melt-up in equity prices has likely given some investors the impression that stocks are impervious to risk today, one risk that will surely get the markets attention if it materializes is the risk of a euro breakup. MarketWatch has the story. First there were “Grexit” fears, then the “Brexit” shock and now investors have started to brace for “Frexit”. The latest of the exit scenarios to spook financial markets, the risk of France leaving the eurozone has heightened in recent days after far-right candidate Marine Le Pen last weekend launched her presidential campaign with a … [Read more...]

A Bull Market Made of Monetary Excess

August 9, 2017 By Dick Young

This is an excerpt from the February 2017 issue of Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report, where Dick Young helps investors compound wealth with income generating strategies that seek to avoid risk. Dick uses his proven inference reading based investment strategy to recommend stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange traded funds generating attractive shareholder returns. Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report is designed for the discerning investor not the fad driven speculator. A Bull Market Made of Monetary Excess I've chronicled here and on my websites (www.youngresearch.com and … [Read more...]

Portfolio Strategy: When Hope and Reality Collide

October 26, 2017 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Since the election, markets have seemed to trade on hope and improved sentiment the new administration will enact a pro-growth agenda that will be bullish for American business. The U.S. stock market is up 9% since the election and some sectors which would presumably benefit the most from President Trump’s proposed policies are up much more. But now that Trump and many of his key cabinet members have been sworn in, the honeymoon is nearing its end. Markets will no longer be able to trade on the hope of the best possible policy outcome, but on the reality of what can actually get done. That … [Read more...]

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