After neglecting their pensions for years, companies are racing to use a tax break on debt to shore up their funds before its gone. Bloomberg explains how borrowing now will save companies money. Molly Smith and Katherine Chiglinsky write: If a company acts now, a $1 billion contribution would only cost $650 million after taxes, based on 2017 rates. But once the corporation has passed the due date of its 2017 return, including extensions, the $1 billion contribution would cost $790 million after taxes. On top of that, the cost of government insurance on unfunded pension obligations has … [Read more...]
Archives for February 2018
Can Macy’s Make It?
After going through a troublesome period, markets rewarded Macy's yesterday thanks to some improvement in performance, and the company's offloading some assets deemed unneeded. Macy's CEO Jeff Gennette told the WSJ that “All boats are rising and everybody in retail right now is benefiting from strong consumer confidence." Consumer confidence is strong. As you can see on the chart below, consumer sentiment, as measure by the University of Michigan survey, is nearing its all-time highs. Americans seem to be responding positively to tax cuts and an economic picture that looks better than it has … [Read more...]
Is Housing in Another Bubble?
House prices may not be as high as they were at their 2006 peak, but they are close. And as Bloomberg reports, we are starting to see the type of activity that should worry regulators and central bankers. 35% of home-buyers in the U.S. are now buying houses sight unseen. Even with a planned 3 interest rate hikes in 2018, the Fed may be behind the curve. Thirty-five percent of homebuyers in the U.S. aren’t even visiting the property before they put in a bid, amid torrid competition in a tight market, according to the latest survey by Redfin Corp. The survey, conducted in November and … [Read more...]
Dividends are on the Rise
Dividends are the backbone of the Retirement Compounders. Now Michael Wursthorn reports in The Wall Street Journal that dividends are on the rise. Dividends are on the rise when investors have fewer reasons to buy the stocks that pay them out. More than a fifth of the companies in the S&P 500 have boosted their dividends to shareholders so far this year, while none have slashed their payouts, a first since 2011, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The increases are getting bigger too, with companies on average raising their payouts by 14%, the biggest jump since 2014. The … [Read more...]
Is There a Worldwide Shortage of LNG?
According to Royal Dutch Shell, the world could see a LNG shortage within a decade. Without more investment in new projects, heightened demand could swamp new supply. Tom DiChristopher reports at CNBC: The Anglo-Dutch energy giant issued the warning in its second annual LNG outlook, which reports on developments in the booming market for natural gas cooled to liquid form for export. Shell says the market for LNG grew by 29 million tons last year, 30 percent more than previously expected. Trading in LNG reached 293 million tons in 2017, up from just 100 million tons at the turn of the … [Read more...]
Compound Interest is Key
For prudent investors, the last three years have meant watching the so-called FAANG stocks (and other speculative shares) rise at a rate that is seemingly unbounded by profits or dividends. The FAANGs have gobbled up an ever-larger portion of the S&P 500 index total market capitalization. Four of the five largest companies in the S&P 500 are now FAANGs. Today’s market environment feels similar to the late 1990s when speculation was dominant. To successfully navigate the environment then, I advised a focus on patience and compound interest. Compound Interest Is the Key Legendary … [Read more...]
A Bet on Emerging Markets is a Bet on Asia
MSCI is revamping the rules for inclusion in the widely followed MSCI Emerging Markets index. MSCI plans to cut the weight of stocks with unequal voting rights. If implemented, the rule would increase the weight of Asian stocks in the index to over 75% while lowering the weight of Latin American stocks to about 11%. The biggest country weights in the MSCI Emerging Markets index are China, South Korea, and Taiwan. Like most market capitalization weighted indices, the MSCI Emerging Markets index is top heavy. The top five countries (out of 24) account for 73% of the weight of the index. If … [Read more...]
Don’t Put Your Greed too far Ahead of Your Fear
This morning The Wall Street Journal tells the story of Harvey Hajiyan, a financial adviser who has been making big bets in the market on margin. In speaking to the Journal, Hajiyan said a phrase that should be a warning bell to any investor "all the strategists agreed." Any time everyone is in agreement on something, you should pick your head up and take note. Someone isn't pricing in risk properly, and if you're just coasting along with the crowd, that someone is you. Use Mr. Hajiyan's tale as a reminder of what happens when investors put greed too far ahead of fear. The Journal's Michael … [Read more...]
How Not to Choose Your Investment Advisor
When financial advisors take it too far to embellish their credentials, it’s the investor who typically pays the price no matter how well-intentioned an advisor may be. In this case you have advisors giving speeches outside of Harvard and West Point with no affiliation to the institutions what so ever and taking credit as being invited guests. The huckster putting these gigs together is Clint Arthur, a former taxi driver and butter salesman who, according to columnist Jason Zweig, “trains businesspeople—including, so far, about three dozen financial advisers—in media skills.” “In order … [Read more...]
The Market for Natural Pet Food is Taking Off
General Mills has announced an agreement to acquire Blue Buffalo pet food company. Blue Buffalo makes natural pet food the company calls "super-premium pet food using only the finest natural ingredients starting with real chicken, lamb or fish." The American market for pet food has been strong, with Blue Buffalo delivering "compound annual net sales growth of 12 percent," over the last three years, according to Bloomberg's Eric Pfanner. He continues: The buzz around the pet-food sector means another suitor may emerge for Blue Buffalo, said Pablo Zuanic, an analyst at Susquehanna International … [Read more...]
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