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Archives for May 2018

Can Amazon Help Revive Branded Consumer Products Companies?

May 31, 2018 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

If you are a regular Amazon user you may have noticed the ads that have started to show up at the top of every search you do on the company’s web page. Or maybe you haven’t. They don’t look much different than organic search results. As the FT reports, advertising is becoming a big business for Amazon. In the last quarter the company generated close to $2 billion from advertising. Advertising is a huge potential market for Amazon, and one where margins are orders of magnitude higher than on the pure sale of retail products. Amazon is of course well within its right to offer up ads on its … [Read more...]

If You Have a Minute, Read this Timeless Nugget from Richard C. Young

May 31, 2018 By E.J. Smith

You don’t want to be in the prediction business, period, especially when it comes to your hard-earned money. In the last week, by example, my favored GNMA fund (managed by Wellington), surged by over one percent. In a week! That’s a big move when the annual yield is around three percent. Markets are funny. The reason for the surge in GNMAs is because the market now believes the Fed will only raise rates a couple times this year. The market, remember, is a forward looking mechanism and had already priced in three increases. This week, in studying Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report … [Read more...]

Breaking News: BP’s Explosion in Battery Technology

May 31, 2018 By Dick Young

There aren't many events that could change both the dynamics of international affairs and the discussion surrounding the environment faster than a major innovation in battery technology putting electric automobile performance on par with internal combustion engine powered machines. Not to mention that entire sectors of business would be created and possibly destroyed by such an innovation. BP is focused on the idea of battery innovation, and writes about the explosion in such technology in its corporate magazine here (abridged): As BP announces its investment in a developer of electric … [Read more...]

Steve Forbes: Here’s Why Cryptocurrencies Aren’t Money

May 30, 2018 By E.J. Smith

Writing in his eponymous magazine, Steve Forbes explains to readers why cryptocurrencies cannot be "real" money, at least not the way they're set up today. Forbes writes: THE ASTONISHING FACT about the explosion in cryptocurrencies is that their creators have overlooked a fundamental fact: Money isn't viable if it fluctuates in value, particularly with the wild swings characteristic of this sector. Most buyers are looking to make a quick buck, treating Bitcoin et al. like penny stocks of yore. They forget that the very instability of government-produced money is one of the two critical … [Read more...]

Can Consumers’ Fire be Sustained?

May 30, 2018 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

After three months of falling retail sales, there are warning signs showing in the market for consumer discretionary goods. Consumer confidence is still high, but if it begins to tail off, it could spell trouble for a sector that has been powering the economy. Keris Lahiff reports for CNBC: Consumer spending has already shown the beginnings of a slowdown. Retail sales in February fell for a third month in a row, a surprise to economists looking for a slight gain and its longest stretch of declines since 2012. Fourth-quarter sales were at their strongest in seven years. "The consumer is far … [Read more...]

Coming Iran Sanctions Already Biting Shipping

May 30, 2018 By Young Research

Costas Paris and Joanne Chiu report in The Wall Street Journal that coming sanctions on Iran are already having an effect on how shipping companies are approaching the oil exporting country. They write: It will be months before new U.S. sanctions against Iran take hold, but global shipping operators are already pulling back from the big oil-exporting nation. The world’s two biggest shipping lines, Denmark’s Maersk Line and Swiss-based Mediterranean Shipping Co., said they were winding down general cargo shipments, while tanker owners said they plan to move their vessels to other … [Read more...]

Your First Summer Job and Beyond

May 29, 2018 By E.J. Smith

My first Summer job was scooping ice cream at Oxford Creamery in Mattapoisett, MA, where after every shift I'd mop the floors. I like this story from Tyler Bonin at The Wall Street JournaI. Bonin's advice for new grads is to "mop your way to success." It’s never too early to learn how to make yourself useful. He writes: Every commencement season, thousands of graduates are treated to something I call “standard keynote language.” Everyone can recognize these tiny, easily digestible nuggets of wisdom: “Don’t be afraid to take risks,” or “Be courageous.” And the classic: “Follow your passion.” … [Read more...]

Euro Crisis Flares up Again

May 29, 2018 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The populist backlash across the euro-area is gathering momentum. Italy is headed for elections that may give populist parties more power and there is a no-confidence vote planned in Spain. The FT reports that the Bank of Italy has warned the Italian government that it may be losing the trust of markets. The governor of the Bank of Italy has warned that the country was “a few short steps away” from losing the “asset of trust”, a rare intervention by the central bank into a political crisis that underlined the risk Rome faces as it stumbles to new elections. Ignazio Visco said any new … [Read more...]

Can Indian Entrepreneurs Beat Amazon and Walmart?

May 29, 2018 By Young Research

Mom and pop shops in India are giving retail giants Amazon and Walmart a run for their money. The family run stores have almost no wage or rent costs, so they can compete with the logistical prowess of the multinationals. Eric Bellman and Vibhuti Agarwal report on the battle for India's consumers in The Wall Street Journal: Tiny stores known as kiranas dot every Indian street, village and slum. Usually family-run, these micro-businesses range from street vendors selling vegetables to shops the size of a one-car garage. They pay low wages and have little or no rent, which helps keep costs … [Read more...]

Goldman Warns on Junk Bonds

May 25, 2018 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Goldman Sachs is warning that the lower rated rungs of the junk bond universe are the most overpriced since 2007. Bonds rated CCC and below have one of the highest probabilities of default. Goldman estimates the credit-risk premium for CCC obligations has sunk to a negative 53 basis points, "even under a fairly optimistic assumption of no recession for the next five years." That’s the lowest level since before the financial crisis, when the CRP touched negative 420 basis points in June 2007, at the height of the froth in the global debt market. It suggests investors are likely accepting … [Read more...]

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